出口非对称场景疏散人员路径选择实验研究

Experimental study on route choice of pedestrian evacuation in scene with asymmetric exits

为揭示复杂场景中疏散人员出口选择规律,以疏散出口非对称设置、内部包含大量障碍物的教室为例,设计并开展人员疏散实验,研究人员疏散时间和出口选择的特征。首先将教室内划分为若干人员分布区域,研究人员分布区域数量、人员分布区域组合、压力条件对疏散时间的影响以及相应参数对疏散人员出口选择的影响,采用数据统计分析方法量化各影响因素对疏散时间、出口选择的显著性水平。研究结果表明:人员分布区域数量、压力条件对疏散时间具有显著影响,人员分布区域组合在疏散人数较少时对疏散人员出口选择产生显著影响;疏散过程中人员出口选择具有明显的非对称性;选取出口处拥挤程度、更早到达出口的人数、经出口到达疏散终点路径长度、压力情况4个变量建立效用函数,计算不同出口对于每个行人的效用,模拟疏散人员选择出口,得到模型对于未参与效用函数拟合的场景中人员出口选择行为的预测准确率为87.75%。研究结果可为复杂场景的人员疏散安全性评估提供模型支撑。

In order to reveal the exit choice laws of pedestrian evacuation in complexed scenes,taking the classroom with asymmetric evacuation exits and a large number of internal obstacles as an example,the experiments of pedestrian evacuation were designed and conducted to investigate the characteristics of pedestrian evacuation time and exit choice.The classroom was divided into several zones of occupant distribution,and the influence of the number of occupant distribution zones,the combinations of occupant distribution zones,and pressure conditions on evacuation time,as well as the influence of corresponding parameters on the exit choice of participated pedestrians,were studied.The data statistical analysis method was employed to quantify the significance level of various influencing factors on evacuation time and exit choice.The results show that the number of occupant distribution zones and pressure conditions significantly affect the evacuation time,and the combination of occupant distribution zones has a significant impact on the exit choice patterns when the number of evacuees is small.The exit choice during the evacuation process exhibits significant asymmetry.A utility function is established based on four variables:congestion level at the exits,number of people arriving at the exits earlier,length of the route from the exits to the evacuation destination,and pressure conditions,and the utility of different exits for each person is calculated to simulate the exit choice of each pedestrian.The predictive accuracy of the model for exit choice behavior in the scenes where they are not involved in the utility function fitting is verified to be 87.75%.The research results can provide model support for evacuation safety assessment in complex scenes.