基于内-外因理论和Apriori算法的动火作业事故分析

Analysis of hot work accidents based on internal-external causes and Apriori algorithm

为研究动火作业事故致因及其相互作用,采用Apriori关联规则算法和内-外因理论相结合的方法,对2013-2023年100起动火作业事故致因进行深入分析。根据内-外因事故致因理论,从作业人员、设备设施、作业场所和作业管理4个方面对事故原因进行分类,分析不同事故原因的发生频数,构建动火作业事故致因因素集;采用Apriori算法挖掘事故致因间的关联关系,对强关联规则进行具体分析。研究结果表明:作业前检查不到位、安全教育培训不到位、安全主体责任落实不到位等是导致动火作业事故发生的关键致因因素,在此基础上提出针对动火作业安全的预防措施,并构建动火作业安全管控策略。研究结果可为揭示动火作业事故预防的关键点,减少动火作业事故的发生提供参考。

In order to study the causes of hot work accidents and their interactions,a combination method of the Apriori association rule algorithm and the theory of internal-external causes was used to deeply analyze the accident causes of 100 hot work accidents from 2013 to 2023.According to the accident causation theory of internal-external causes,the causes of accidents were classified from four aspects:operators,equipment and facilities,workplace and work management,and the frequency of different causes of accidents was analyzed to construct a set of factors for the causes of hot work accidents.The Apriori algorithm was used to explore the correlation relationship between the causes of accidents,and the strong association rules were analyzed in a specific way.The results show that the lack of pre-operational inspection,the lack of safety education and training,and the lack of implementation of main responsibility for safety are the key causal factors leading to the occurrence of hot work accidents.On this basis,the preventive measures for the safety of hot work were proposed,and the safety management and control strategies of hot work were constructed.The research results can provide reference for revealing the key points in the prevention of hot work accidents and reducing the occurrence of hot work accidents.