基于模糊DANP和二元语义的高速公路应急演练综合评价方法

Comprehensive evaluation method of highway emergency drills based on fuzzy DANP and two-tuple linguistic information

为考察高速公路应急演练效果并检验应急预案实操性,给出一种高速公路突发事件应急演练综合评价方法。首先,从演练策划与准备、演练组织与实施、演练后总结与改进3个方面综合考虑,建立高速公路应急演练综合评价指标体系;其次,将模糊理论、决策实验室分析法(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)和网络层次分析法(analytic network process,ANP)相结合,形成模糊DANP法,确定应急演练综合评价指标间的影响关系及各指标权重;之后,引用二元语义法,将评价术语线性标度转换为复合指数标度,提出基于改进二元语义的高速公路应急演练综合评价方法;最后,以港珠澳大桥某次交通事故应急演练为例,实践应用该方法并验证其有效性。研究结果表明:该方法具有一定的有效性,可为高速公路突发事件应急演练综合评价提供参考。

To evaluate the effectiveness of highway emergency drills and test the practicality of emergency plans,a comprehensive evaluation method for highway emergency drills was proposed.Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation index system of highway emergency drills was established with taking into account three key aspects:drill planning and preparation,drill organization and implementation,and post-drill summary and improvement.Secondly,the fuzzy theory,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL),then the analytic network process(ANP)were combined to form the fuzzy DANP method,and the influence relationship among the comprehensive evaluation indexes of emergency drills and the weight of each index were determined.Thirdly,the two-tuple linguistic information method was employed to convert the linear scaled of evaluation terms into the composite index scales,and a comprehensive evaluation method of highway emergency drills based on improved two-tuple linguistic information was proposed.Finally,taking a traffic accident emergency drill of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge as an example,the method was applied in practice and its effectiveness was verified.The results show that the method has certain effectiveness and can provide reference for the comprehensive evaluation of highway emergency drills.