基于时空分布特征的地质灾害气象预警预报模型研究

Research on Geological Disaster Meteorological Warning and Forecasting Model Based on Geological Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics

为有效分析气象灾害情况,降低地质灾害风险,以吉林地区近年来地质灾害数据为基础,分析该地区时间与空间分布特征;同时,结合对研究区域致灾因素的关系分析,采用层次分析法(AHP)构建研究地区地质灾害气象预警预报模型,并引入粒子群算法(PSO)优化模型主观性问题,实现对该地区地质灾害的预警;经过分析,地区降雨、人类活动、风化厚度是引起地质灾害的主要因素之一;在降雨量较高的灾害预测分析中,当降雨量为200 mm时,研究模型、综合指数法、模糊数学法灾害数分别为321处、185处、177处,研究模型更接实际的310处,可见其预测准确性更高;对研究地区灾害情况进行进一步分析,地区2与地区6具有较高的滑坡风险,两个地区预测滑坡数均超过20处,需要做好地质风险处理;研究内容将为地质灾害频发地区提供有效的灾害评估与预警。

To effectively analyze the situation of meteorological disasters and reduce the risk of geological disasters,based on recent geological disaster data in a certain region in Jilin province,China,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the region.Meanwhile,combining the analysis of the relationship between the disaster causing factors in the area,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)is used to construct a meteorological warning and prediction model for geological disasters in the area,and the Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)algorithm is introduced to optimize the subjectivity of the model,achieving the early warning of geological disasters in the area.After analysis,regional rainfall,human activities,and weathering thickness are one of the main factors causing geological disasters.In the analysis of disaster prediction with higher rainfall,when the rainfall is 200 mm,the research model,comprehensive index method,and fuzzy mathematics method have 321,185,and 177 disaster numbers,respectively,the disaster ones of the research model is closer to the actual 310,indicating a higher prediction accuracy.Further analysis of the disaster situation in the area shows that regions 2 and 6 have a higher landslide risk,with both regions predicting over 20 landslides.Therefore,it is necessary to manage geological risks.The research results will provide an effective disaster assessment and early warning for areas with frequent geological disasters.