智慧城市建设对经济绿色转型的影响效应——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

The Impact of Smart City Construction on the Green Transformation of the Economy:Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

文章基于2007—2021年中国280个地级及以上城市的面板数据,利用国家智慧城市试点政策作为准自然实验,运用双重机器学习模型识别智慧城市建设对城市经济绿色转型的影响及传导路径。研究发现:智慧城市建设显著促进城市经济绿色转型,且智慧城市建设自试点以来对城市经济绿色转型的影响效应大致呈现逐渐增强的趋势;提高信息化发展水平、缓解资源错配以及促进产业结构转型升级是智慧城市建设促进城市经济绿色转型的重要传导机制;智慧城市建设对城市经济绿色转型的促进效应在东中部地区、大中规模城市以及传统基础设施水平较高的地区更为明显。

This article,based on the panel data from 280 cities at and above the prefecture level in China from 2007 to 2021,uses the pilot national smart city policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and employs a double machine learning model to identify the impact of smart city construction on the green transformation of urban economies and its transmission pathways.According to the research findings,the construction of smart cities significantly promotes the green transformation of urban economies,and the impact of smart city construction on the green transformation of urban economies has shown a gradually increasing trend since its pilot implementation.Enhancing the level of information technology development,alleviating resource mis-allocation,and facilitating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures are key transmission mechanisms through which smart city construction promotes the green transformation of urban economies.The positive effects of smart city construction on green transformation of urban economies are more pronounced in the eastern and central regions,medium and large cities,and areas with higher levels of traditional infrastructure.