基于GIS的清江盆地长时间尺度区域土地利用碳排放效应

The effect of regional land use carbon emissions on a long-term scale in the Qingjiang Basin based on GIS

利用1930—2010年江西省鄱阳湖流域清江盆地土地利用数据,结合碳排放系数和STIRPAT模型,探讨了该时间段研究区碳排放的变化过程和影响因素。结果表明,1930—2010年净碳排放量从43 312.9 t增长至87 412.3 t。碳源由46 331.0 t增长至97 816.2 t;碳汇则由3 018.1 t变化为10 403.9 t。回归分析显示,1930—2010年碳汇的占比总体上处于增加趋势。耕地、草地、水域和未利用土地的变化不明显,林地和建设用地变化较大。STIRPAT模型分析结果显示,耕地和建设用地是清江盆地1930—2010年土地利用碳排放增加的主要驱动因素,耕地和建设用地每增加1%,会分别导致碳排放增加5.250%和0.688%。

Based on the land use data of Qingjiang Basin of the Poyang Lake Basin of Jiangxi Province from 1930 to 2010,combined with the carbon emission coefficient and STIRPAT model,the change process and influencing factors of carbon emission in the study area during this period were discussed.The results indicated that the net carbon emissions increased from 43 312.9 tons to 87 412.3tons from 1930 to 2010.The carbon source increased from 46 331.0 tons to 97 816.2 tons.The carbon sink had changed from 3 018.1 tons to 10 403.9 tons.Regression analysis showed that the proportion of carbon sinks had generally been increasing from 1930 to 2010.The changes in arable land,grassland,water bodies and unused land were not significant,while the changes in forest land and construction land were significant.The analysis results of the STIRPAT model showed that arable land and construction land were the main driving factors for the increase in land use carbon emissions in the Qingjiang Basin from 1930 to 2010.For every 1% increase in arable land and construction land,carbon emissions increased by 5.250% and 0.688%,respectively.