丹寨县龙泉山景区杜鹃始花期预报分析

Prediction and Analysis of the Initial Flowering Period of Rhododendron in Longquan Mountain Scenic Area of Danzhai County

为满足丹寨县龙泉山景区杜鹃始花期的预报需求,对龙泉山区域自动站2013—2023年的气温、湿度、降水量等气象数据以及始花期数据进行统计分析,探讨了杜鹃始花期预测方法、预测模型的建立及应用。结果表明:最早和最晚始花期时间相隔6 d,始花期有推迟的趋势;始花期受气温、温湿比的影响,且与其呈显著相关性(P<0.05)。以3月下旬平均最低气温为关键气象因子,建立杜鹃始花期预报模型,该模型预测误差为1~3 d,模型预测效果较好。

To address the prediction demands concerning the commencement of Rhododendron flowering in the Longquan Mountain Scenic Area of Danzhai County,statistical analyses were carried out on temperature,humidity,and precipitation data obtained from the regional automatic weather station from 2013 to 2023,as long with the corresponding records of the initial flowering dates of Rhododendrons.The study revealed a 6-day variance between the earliest and latest flowering periods of Rhododendrons,revealing a trend towards delayed flowering.The initiation of flowering demonstrated a significant association with both temperature and the temperature humidity ratio(P<0.05).By utilizing the average minimum temperature in late March as the primary meteorological factor,a prediction model for the flowering period of Rhododendron was construccted.The model exhibited a prediction error of 1 to 3 days,demonstrating strong performance.