基于离散事件模拟的航站楼运行韧性分析

Terminal operation resilience analysis based on discrete event simulation

提高航站楼运行韧性是减少偶然事件下人员财产损失、减轻破坏程度、尽快恢复功能的最佳办法。目前,对航站楼缺乏基于运行性能指标时变过程的韧性定量分析理论与技术。基于此,提出综合体现鲁棒性、快速性与系统性能损失的航站楼系统综合韧性指标的航站楼运行韧性理论框架,基于离散事件模拟,得出航站楼运行系统在设备损坏、人员缺席2种扰动情景及不同扰动时间、旅客到达率下的韧性变化规律,并提出提高安检效率及设备冗余率2种韧性提升策略。结果表明:系统鲁棒性指标、性能损失指标均与扰动时间及旅客到达率呈负相关;对于设备损坏和人员缺席2种情景,提升安检效率使系统综合韧性水平分别从原有的0.325、0.054提升至0.834、0.913,提升设备冗余率使系统综合韧性水平从0.22提升至0.638。

Improving the operation resilience of the terminal is the best way to reduce the loss of people and property in an accident,mitigate the damage,and restore its function as soon as possible.At present,there is a lack of theories and techniques for quantitatively analyzing the resilience of the terminal based on the time-varying process of operation performance indicators.First,a theoretical framework of terminal operation resilience was proposed,with a comprehensive resilience index of the terminal system,which comprehensively reflected the robustness,rapidity,and system performance loss.Then,based on discrete event simulation,the resilience variation law of the terminal operation system under two disturbance scenarios of equipment damage and personnel absence,different disturbance time,and passenger arrival rates was obtained.In addition,two resilience improvement strategies were put forward to improve security check efficiency and equipment redundancy rate.The results show that the system robustness index and performance loss index are negatively correlated with disturbance time and passenger arrival rate.For the two scenarios of equipment damage and personnel absence,improving the security check efficiency increases the comprehensive resilience level of the system from the original 0.325 and 0.054 to 0.834 and 0.913,respectively,and improving the equipment redundancy rate increases the comprehensive resilience level of the system from 0.22 to 0.638.