福建省厦门市海沧区2011-2020年肝癌流行趋势分析和预测

Analysis and prediction of the prevalence trend of liver cancer in Haicang district,Xiamen city,Fujian province from 2011 to 2020

目的了解福建省厦门市海沧区肝癌流行情况和变化趋势。方法回顾性收集福建省厦门市海沧区2011-2020年人群肿瘤监测数据,计算发病率、死亡率、中国人口标化率(中标率)、世界人口标化率(世标率)、累积率、截缩率等指标评价该地区肝癌流行水平,采用平均变化百分比和年度变化百分比评价流行趋势,采用GM(1,1)模型预测2021-2025年发病率和死亡率。结果福建省厦门市海沧区2011-2020年肝癌粗发病率为22.86例/10万,中标率和世标率分别为21.32例/10万、21.33例/10万,35~<65岁截缩率为35.86例/10万,<75岁累积率为2.59%。粗死亡率为18.50例/10万,中标率和世标率分别为17.25例/10万、17.13例/10万,35~<65岁截缩率为27.06例/10万,<75岁累积率为2.00%。男性发病率、死亡率、截缩率均明显高于女性。全区发病率、死亡率年均分别下降6.75%、8.36%,女性发病率、死亡率年均分别下降12.52%、14.69%,男性无下降趋势。经模型预测,2021-2025年肝癌发病率将进一步下降。结论福建省厦门市海沧区肝癌发病风险处于全国和福建省中等水平,但仍高于同处沿海地带经济较发达地区,应重点关注男性老年人群,加强防控。

Objective To investigate the prevalence and trend of liver cancer in Haicang district,Xiamen city,Fujian province.Methods The data of population based cancer surveillance in Haicang district,Haicang district,Xiamen city,Fujian province from 2011 to 2020 were retrospectively collected.The incidence,mortality,age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population(ASRC),age-standardized rate by world standard population(ASRW),cumulative incidence and truncated incidence were calculated to evaluate the prevalence of liver cancer.The average percentage change and annual percentage change were used to evaluate the epidemic trend.GM(1,1)model was used to predict the incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2025.Results The crude incidence rate of liver cancer in Haicang district of Xiamen city,Fujian province from 2011 to 2020 was 22.86/100000.The age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world standard population were 21.32/100000 and 21.33/100000,respectively.The crude mortality rate for patients aged 35-<65 was 35.86/100000,and the cumulative rate for patients aged<75 was 2.59%.The crude mortality rate was 18.50/100000,and the ASRC and ASRW were 17.25/100000 and 17.13/100000,respectively.The truncated rate for ages 35-<65 was 27.06/100000,and the cumulative rate for ages<75 was 2.00%.The incidence rate,mortality and truncated rate of males were significantly higher than those of females.The incidence rate and mortality rate of the whole region decreased by 6.75%and 8.36%per year respectively,and the incidence rate and mortality rate of females decreased by 12.52%and 14.69%per year respectively,while there was no decreasing trend for males.According to the model′s prediction,the incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma will decrease from 2021-2025.Conclusion The incidence risk of liver cancer in Haicang district,Xiamen city,Fujian province,is at the medium level in China and Fujian province,but still higher than that in the economically developed coastal areas.And should be focused on the male elderly population to strengthen prevention and control.