长大桥梁非通航孔桥船舶撞击风险评估模型及工程应用

Risk Assessment Model and a Case Study of Ship Collision on Piers of Non-navigable Spans of a Long Bridge

针对长大桥梁非通航孔桥船撞风险评估问题,基于风险指数评估方法,考虑船舶信息、航道信息、桥墩信息、水流和风力等关键影响因素,建立船舶碰撞非通航孔的风险评估模型。以某跨海长桥为背景,基于船舶交通流统计数据,从危险性、暴露性和脆弱性三方面,对3座主通航孔桥两侧的非通航孔桥船撞风险进行了定量统计分析。结果表明:A通航孔桥两侧非通航孔桥墩船舶撞击风险低,B通航孔桥和C通航孔桥两侧的非通航孔桥墩船舶撞击风险非常高。建议从通航管理、导助航设施、预警措施、拦截措施、应急处置等方面建立综合防护措施来降低非通航孔桥的船撞风险,避免发生船舶碰撞桥梁的事故。

This study focuses on the risk of ship collision on piers of non-navigable spans of long bridges.Based on the risk index evaluation method,a risk assessment model for ship collision on piers of non-navigable spans of long bridges is established,considering multiple factors,including ship information,navigation channel information,bridge pier information,water flow,and wind forces.To verify the applicability of the model,an existing long sea-crossing bridge is used as an example of the engineering application.Based on the statistical data of ship traffic information,a risk assessment analysis was conducted on the piers of non-navigable spans of three navigation channel bridges(A,B,and C).The calculation results showed that the collision probability of the piers of non-navigable spans of navigation channel bridge A was low,while the collision probability of the piers of non-navigable spans of navigation channel bridges B and C was very high.It is necessary to establish comprehensive protective systems that integrate navigation management,navigation assistance facilities,early warning technology,interception technology,and emergency response methods to reduce the risk of ship collision with non-navigation piers.