构建新型电力系统背景下火电容量与电量脱钩态势研究

Research on the decoupling trend of thermal power capacity and electricityunder the background of building a new power system

在实现碳达峰碳中和重大气候战略进程中,火电和新能源的高质量协同发展是应对一系列转型挑战的关键。能源绿色低碳转型推动火电功能定位转变,碳排放约束下火电产业的生存空间将进一步收缩,火电高质量转型迫在眉睫。我国不同省份资源禀赋和电力供需基础差异较大,新能源发展和火电转型进程呈现显著异质性。在此背景下,分析各省火电发展趋势,识别不同省份火电定位,准确把握火电转型进程和态势,为火电高质量转型提供决策依据,具有重要且紧迫的现实意义。基于2004—2022年我国30个省(市)的火电相关数据,利用Tapio脱钩弹性模型分析各省(市)火电装机容量与发电量的脱钩情况及时空演变趋势。结果表明,我国火电容量与电量长期处于容量型弱脱钩状态,各省(市)火电定位开始发生不同程度的转变,大部分省(市)容量占比和发电量占比脱钩状态目前稳定在新能源驱动型脱钩阶段。我国电力结构持续优化,火电装机容量和发电量占比逐年减少,为新能源快速发展和新型电力系统加快构建提供兜底保障作用不断凸显。

In the process of achieving the major climate strategy of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the high-quality coordinated development of thermal power and new energy is the key to addressing a series of transition challenges.The green and low-carbon transition of energy promotes the change in the functional positioning of thermal power.Under carbon emission constraints,the development space of the thermal power will further shrink,and a high-quality transition of thermal power is imminent.Due to the significant differences in resource endowments and electricity supply and demand foundations among different provinces in China,there is heterogeneity in the development of new energy and the transition process of thermal power.Under this background,analyzing the development trends of thermal power in various provinces,identifying the positioning of thermal power in different provinces,accurately grasping the process and trend of thermal power transition,and providing decision-making support for high-quality thermal power transition are of great and urgent practical significance.Based on the thermal power-related data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2022,this article uses the Tapio decoupling elasticity model to analyze the decoupling situation and spatial-temporal evolution trend of thermal power installed capacity and power generation in various provinces.The results show that China′s thermal power capacity and power generation have been in a state of volumetric weak decoupling for a long time.The positioning of thermal power in various provinces has begun to change to varying degrees.The decoupling status of capacity proportion and power generation proportion in most provinces is currently stable in the stage of new energy-driven decoupling.China′s power structure continues to be optimized,with the proportion of thermal power installed capacity and power generation decreasing year by year,continuously highlighting its supporting role in accelerating the rapid development of new energy and the construction of a new power system.