我国煤炭资源安全评价及策略研究

Research on the safety assessment and strategy of coal resources in China

煤炭作为我国主要能源资源之一,在国家能源结构中一直占据着重要地位,其资源的安全性对于经济社会的可持续发展至关重要,煤炭资源安全问题已成为许多国家关注的问题。为构建一个更为全面合理的煤炭资源安全综合评价体系,此研究从长期煤炭资源和短期煤炭资源稳定供应的双重视角出发,系统探讨煤炭储量、煤炭产业发展水平、环境可持续性、煤炭供应、煤炭需求和煤炭进出口等六大核心要素对煤炭资源安全状况的影响,采用熵权TOPSIS模型科学评价2013—2022年我国煤炭资源安全水平程度,在此基础上,对新时代煤炭资源安全面临的挑战进行阐述,提出相应的对策建议以供参考。结果表明:2013—2018年,经济状况不佳和环境问题使得煤炭经济呈小幅度下降趋势;2019年在政策的干预下煤炭行业得到高速发展,同时地质勘查投资对煤炭资源安全有积极的正向影响;2020—2022年煤炭产量的增加和供给侧结构性改革使得煤炭行业再一次复苏。安全评价及策略研究有助于促进我国煤炭行业健康发展,推动“双碳”战略目标实施。

As one of the main energy resources in China,coal has always occupied an important position in the national energy structure,and the security of its resources is very important for the sustainable development of economy and society,and the security of coal resources has become a concern for many countries.In order to construct a more comprehensive and reasonable comprehensive evaluation system for coal resource security,this study systematically discusses the impact of six core factors,including coal reserves,coal industry development level,environmental sustainability,coal supply,coal demand,and coal import and export,on the security status of coal resources from the dual perspectives of long-term coal resources and short-term stable supply of coal resources,and uses the entropy weight topsis model to scientifically evaluate the security level of coal resources in China from 2013 to 2022.The challenges faced by coal resources in the new era are expounded,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for reference.The results show that from 2013 to 2018,the coal economy showed a slight downward trend due to poor economic conditions and environmental problems.In 2019,the coal industry has developed rapidly under the intervention of policies,and at the same time,geological exploration investment has a positive impact on the safety of coal resources.The increase in coal production and supply-side structural reforms in 2020-2022 have led to another recovery in the coal industry.This study will help promote the healthy development of China′s coal industry and promote the implementation of the"dualcarbon"strategic goal.