宏观环境中的刺激政策:基于供给约束的灵活应用

Stimulus Policy in Macro Environment:Flexible Application Based on Supply Constraints

刺激政策的评价应放到特定的宏观环境中来进行。同样的刺激政策,在不同宏观环境中可能产生截然不同的效果。因此,该不该做政策刺激,需要视宏观经济环境而定,不能一概而论。刺激政策的真正约束在宏观经济的供给能力,应以反映供给约束是否收紧的通胀和国际收支为目标,在通胀低于目标值,国际收支顺差的时候刺激需求;而在通胀高于目标值,国际收支逆差时退出。刺激经济不是“饮鸩止渴”,而是经济结构失衡前提下稳定经济的必要之策。刺激政策只是政府视情况灵活使用的调控宏观经济的技术性手段,不能与我国长期要坚持的大政方针对立起来,人为地加大政府调控经济运行的难度。

The evaluation of stimulus policies should be put into a specific macro environment.The same stimulus policy may produce very different effects in different macro environments.Therefore,whether policy stimulus should be done or not depends on the macroeconomic environment and cannot be generalized.The real constraint of the stimulus policy is in the supply capacity of the macroeconomy,and it should target inflation and international balance of payments(BOP)that reflect whether the supply constraint is tightened,stimulate demand when inflation is below the target and the BOP is in surplus,and exit when inflation is above the target and the BOP is in deficit.Stimulus is not a"thirst quencher,but a necessary measure to stabilize the economy under the premise of structural imbalance.Stimulus policy is only a technical means for the government to regulate the macroeconomy.This technical means,which should be used flexibly depending on the situation,should not be regarded as contradicting to the major policy orientation that China has to adhere to in the long run.Otherwise,the government will be confined to its own limits,and artificially increase the dificulty of regulating the economic operation.