铸就“强大货币”:五大国际货币离岸市场深度测算——兼论日元离岸市场发展的借鉴启示

Forging a"Strong Currency":The depth Calculation of the Offshore Market of Five Major International Currencies-A Reference from the Development of Japanese Yen Offshore Market

是否被非居民广泛使用是判定强大的国际货币的核心指标。非居民之间形成的离岸市场,是货币国际使用最为鲜活的市场。文章从市场深度的定义出发,采用3个维度和6个指标衡量了五大国际货币的离岸市场深度,并着重比较了日元和人民币离岸市场的发展历程。研究发现,人民币离岸市场已初具规模,有突出表现的是外汇市场,外汇市场的产品多样性、地域多样性和价格流动性均可与美元、欧元、英镑和日元相媲美。然而,人民币离岸市场仍存在利率波动大、离岸债券和离岸银行发展滞后的短板,说明目前人民币尚未真正实现国际广泛使用和长期留存。日元的经验表明,推动本币离岸市场发展必须以长期经济增长和金融稳定为基础,而这依赖于宏观政策的有效统筹和实施。未来,在保持国内经济金融稳定发展的前提下,建议以中国国债为突破口,重点发展离岸债券市场,鼓励人民币清算行为当地主体提供人民币投融资金融服务,完善离岸人民币流动性供给机制,进而推动人民币成为真正强大的国际货币。

Whether it is widely used by non-residents is a core indicator of a strong international currency.The offshore market formed among non-residents is the most vivid market for the international use of currency.Starting from the theoretical definition of market depth,this paper uses 3 dimensions and 6 indicators to measure the offshore market depth of the five major international currencies,and focuses on comparing the development process of the offshore markets of JPY and RMB.The study finds that the development of the offshore RMB market has begun to take shape,and the performance of the foreign exchange market is outstanding,which can be on a par with other international currencies in terms of product diversity,geographical diversity and price liquidity,but there are stil shortcomings such as large fuctuations in interest rates,lagging development of offshore bonds and offshore banks,indicating that it is still dificult for RMB to be used and stayed abroad.The experience of the yen shows that the fundamental development of the offshore local currency market lies in maintaining long-term economic growth and maintaining financial stability,which is inseparable from the overall coordination and effective implementation of macroeconomic policies.In the future,while maintaining the stable development of the domestic economy and finance,we suggest to take Chinese government bonds as a breakthrough and focus on the development of the offshore bond market,encourage RMB clearing banks to provide RMB investment and financing financial services for local entities,improve the offshore RMB liquidity supply mechanism,and ultimately promote RMB to become a truly powerful international currency.