货币政策、要素价格与企业进入退出动态

Monetary Policy,Factor Price and Firm Dynamics of Entry and Exit

货币政策会通过要素价格对企业的进入和退出行为产生错综复杂的影响,厘清货币政策如何影响企业的进入和退出行为,对于创新货币政策工具、完善货币政策调控机制具有重要意义。鉴于此,文章基于动态进入成本的视角研究了货币政策冲击对企业进入退出的影响,研究发现:宽松的货币政策冲击会抑制企业进入与退出;机制分析表明宽松的货币政策通过提高工资和资本品价格这两种要素价格,进而增加企业的进入成本,阻碍企业进入,但同时也提升了在位企业的市场价值,缓解了企业退出;由于不同行业、不同规模、不同要素密集度乃至不同地区的企业进入成本由不同比例的工资和资本品价格构成,在货币政策冲击下,工资和资本品价格不同的响应动态产生了不同的进入成本,进而对企业进入退出产生异质性影响。据此,文章提出在当前经济环境下应当保持稳健的总量型货币政策,避免货币政策刺激导致要素价格大幅提升,从而增加企业进入成本,进而阻碍企业进入;应当使用精准的结构性货币政策支持企业进入,为经济长期发展积蓄力量。

Firm entry-exit is important for economic growth and economic fluctuations.Existing research indicates that an important reason for the slow long-term recovery of output and employment in the United States after the 2008 international financial crisis is the excessive exit of firms during the crisis and the slowdown of firm entry in the post-crisis period.Firm entry-exit amplifies and propagates aggregate shocks and exacerbates economic fluctuations.In the current economic environment,how can monetary policy better assist firms to enter the market and mitigate economic fluctuations triggered by firm entry-exit?Obviously,we can answer the above questions only if we understand the mechanism by which monetary policy affects firm entry-exit.The Central Financial Work Conference in 2023 points out that it is necessary to accurately grasp the laws and new characteristics of the supply and demand of money and credit,and enrich the monetary policy toolbox.In such context,understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism from the micro perspective of firm entry-exit can not only deepen the recognition of monetary policy theory,but also contribute to the innovation of monetary policy tools and the improvement of the money supply control mechanism.Therefore,this study investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on firm entry-exit based on the dynamic entry cost perspective.The findings are as follows.First,loose monetary policy shocks dampen firm entry-exit.Second,the mechanism analysis shows that loose monetary policy discourages firm entry by raising wages and capital goods prices,which in turn increases the entry costs of firms.However,it also raises the market value of incumbent firms and eases firm exit.Third,since the entry costs of firms in different industries,sizes,factor intensities,and regions consist of different proportions of wages and capital goods prices,the different response dynamics of wages and capital goods prices under monetary policy shocks generate different entry costs,which,in turn,have a heterogeneous impact on firm entry-exit.According to the above results,this study suggests that the government should maintain prudent aggregate monetary policies in the current economic environment,avoiding monetary policy stimulus that leads to a significant increase in factor prices,which increases the entry costs and thus hinders firm entry;and that it should employ precise structural monetary policies to support firm entry and accumulate strength for the long-term development of the economy.