三江源地区草原森林基于空间网格的雷电危险性评估

Assessment of lightning hazard in grasslands and forests in“Three River Source”region based on spatial grids

以三江源地区2021—2022年闪电定位资料以及1984—2022年雷电灾害数据,计算出地闪密度、地闪强度和雷电灾害密度,采用层次分析法以及ArcGIS空间网格法分析技术对三江源地区雷电灾害的危险性进行评估,并结合三江源地区草原森林分布,分别计算出草原和森林雷电危险性分布。结果表明:(1)三江源地区雷电灾害6月伤亡最严重,多集中在12:00—20:00之间,16:00受灾人最多,17:00雷击死亡人最多,玉树州囊谦县、杂多县、玉树市,果洛州甘德县伤亡占比高。(2)三江源地闪密度高值集中在果洛州和玉树州南部地区;地闪强度高值集中在果洛州东部、南部和玉树州南部地区;雷电灾害密度高值集中在果洛中东部和玉树中南部地区;雷电灾害危险性高值区分布在玉树州囊谦县着晓乡、毛庄乡、东坝乡、娘拉乡、吉尼赛乡和玉树市下拉秀镇,果洛州班玛县、久治县、哇尔依乡和玛沁拉加镇。(3)草原雷电危险性高值区主要集中在玉树州西部和南部、果洛州南部和中东部。森林危险性高值区集中在玉树州东南部、果洛州南部和东北部。(4)三江源地区玉树州、果洛州草原森林雷电灾害与海拔高度呈负相关,与地形起伏度和地形坡度呈正相关。通过对三江源地区玉树州和果洛州草原森林雷电灾害危险性分析评估,为雷电灾害预防提供有利依据。

Lightning disasters in“Three River Source”region,Qinghai Province,China resulted in the most severe casualties in June,primarily between 12:00 and 20:00.The highest number of casualties occurred around 16:00,with the most fatalities due to lightning strikes around 17:00.The areas of Nangqen County,Zadoi County,Yushu City in the Yushu Prefecture,and gade in the Golog Prefecture experienced a higher proportion of casualties.The highest flash densities in“Three River Source”region were concentrated in the southern parts of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture,while the highest ground flash intensities were observed in the eastern and southern parts of Golog Prefecture and the southern part of Yushu Prefecture.Lightning disasters were most densely concentrated in the central and eastern areas of Golog Prefecture and the central and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture.The high-risk areas for lightning disasters were distributed across Zhaoxiao Township,Maozhuang Township,Dongba Township,Niangla Township,Jinisai Township in Nangqen County,and Xialaxiu Town in Yushu City,Yushu Prefecture,as well as Baima County,Jigzhi County,Wa’erji Township,and Laga Town in Maqen County,Golog Prefecture.The high-risk areas for grassland lightning hazards were mainly located in the western and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture,and the southern and central eastern parts of Golog Prefecture.Forest lightning risks were concentrated in the southeastern part of Yushu Prefecture and the southern and northeastern parts of Golog Prefecture.The analysis showed a negative correlation between lightning disasters and altitude,while terrain undulation and slope were positively correlated with these events.By assessing the risk of lightning disasters in the grasslands and forests of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture within the“Three River Source”region,a solid foundation is established for effective lightning disaster prevention.