黄河流域城乡收入差距时空格局及其对城镇化的响应

Spatio-temporal pattern of urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin and its response to urbanization

解析黄河流域城乡收入差距与城镇化水平的时空演变特征以及探讨两者间的关系,对破解城乡及地区间发展不平衡,缩小城乡收入差距,促进城乡融合发展有重要意义。以黄河流域76个地区为研究对象,运用泰尔指数、核密度估计、空间计量模型及GIS与数理分析方法,分析2005—2020年城乡收入差距与城镇化水平的时空演化特征,揭示前者对后者的响应程度,并检验分析城乡收入差距的其他影响因素。结果表明:(1)2005—2020年黄河流域城乡收入差距呈缩小趋势;各地带城乡收入差距呈“下游<中游<上游”阶梯递增趋势;各地区之间的城乡收入差距呈现缩小与收敛的态势。分地区看,阿坝、安康、临汾等35个地区的城乡收入差距呈“倒U型”趋势变化,安阳、宝鸡、包头等35个地区的城乡收入差距呈近线型递减趋势变化。空间分布上,黄河流域城乡收入差距由北向南呈上升趋势,自西向东趋于降低。(2)2005—2020年黄河流域城镇化水平表现出由较低水平转变为中高水平的特征,城镇化水平提升明显。(3)黄河流域城镇化水平对城乡收入差距的影响呈“倒U型”的非线性特征,城镇化水平超过一定的阈值后,对城乡收入差距的影响由正向促进转变为负向抑制作用。城镇化水平对城乡收入差距的影响存在空间异质性特征,其中黄河流域上游、中游区域城镇化水平对城乡收入差距的影响呈“倒U型”特征,黄河流域下游区域城镇化水平对城乡收入差距的影响呈负向线型特征。邻近地区的城镇化水平存在空间溢出效应,本地城镇化水平、邻近地区城镇化水平对本地城乡收入差距的影响均存在显著非线性倒“U”型关系。研究结果可为缩小黄河流域城乡收入差距,推进城乡融合提供借鉴与参考。

Interpreting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban-rural income gap and the urbanization level in the Yellow River Basin and exploring their relationship are of great significance for addressing the imbalance in urban-rural and regional development,narrowing the urban-rural income gap,and promoting integrated urban-rural development.This paper took 76 prefectures and cities in the Yellow River Basin as research objects and employed the Theil index,kernel density estimation,spatial econometric model,GIS,and mathematical analysis methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban-rural income gap and urbanization level from 2005 to 2020.It revealed the extent of the former’s response to the latter and examined other influencing factors of the urban-rural income gap.The results indicated the following.(1)From 2005 to 2020,the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin showed a narrowing trend,that in different zones exhibited a stair-step increase trend of“lower reaches<middle reaches<upper reaches”,and that between regions showed a narrowing and converging trend.Looking at different regions,35 prefectures and cities,including Aba,Ankang,and Linfen,showed an“inverted U-shaped”trend in the urban-rural income gap,whereas 35 prefectures and cities,including Anyang,Baoji,and Baotou,showed a nearly linear trend in the urban-rural income gap.In terms of spatial distribution,the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend from north to south and tended to decrease from west to east.(2)From 2005 to 2020,the urbanization level in the Yellow River Basin transformed from being mainly at a low level to being mainly at a medium to high level,with a significant increase in urbanization level.(3)The impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a nonlinear“inverted U-shaped”feature.After the urbanization level exceeded a certain threshold,its impact on the urban-rural income gap changed from positive promotion to negative inhibition.The impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap exhibited spatial heterogeneity.In the upstream and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,the impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap showed an“inverted U-shaped”feature,whereas the impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap exhibited a negative linear feature in the downstream area.There was a spatial spillover effect of urbanization level in adjacent areas,and both the local urbanization level and the urbanization level in adjacent areas had significant nonlinear inverted“U-shaped”relationships with the local urban-rural income gap.These research results can provide reference and guidance for narrowing the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin and promoting urban-rural integration.