2000—2020年中国就业人口时空格局及影响因素研究

Study on the Spatio-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Chinese Employed Population from 2000 to 2020

伴随经济发展和产业转型,中国就业空间格局发生着巨大转变。本文基于人口普查分县数据,揭示了新世纪以来中国就业人口变化的时空格局和影响因素。研究表明,2000年以来中国就业人口呈先增后减的趋势,保持增长的县大幅减少。就业人口收缩区包括片段收缩、持续收缩和无收缩三类,片段收缩区约占全国一半区域,主要分布于中西部地区;持续收缩区约占1/3,主要分布在三大经济带交界;无收缩区约占15%,主要分布在西北地区以及三大城市群。就业人口缩减区的产业缩减强度呈第一、二、三产业递减特点。模型显示,高工资水平、高劳动力年龄人口占比、第二和第三产业的发展有助于抑制就业人口收缩,最低工资标准的提高则促进收缩发生。本研究有助于加深理解当前经济转变下中国就业地理格局演变,为应对就业问题和制定政策提供研究基础。

With the process of economic development and industrial structure transformation,China's employment spatial pattern is undergoing a huge transformation.This article is based on the data from the fifth to seventh population censuses by county,revealing the spatiotemporal pattern of the employed population at the city and county levels in China since the new century.It identifies the regional types and industrial characteristics of the contraction of the employed population,and uses the ordinal logistic regression model to explore the influencing factors of the contraction of the employed population.The main conclusions are as follows:1)Since 2000,the employed population in China has shown a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,The number of counties maintaining the employment growth has significantly decreased;2)Among the three types of contraction areas,the episodic shrinkage area accounts for about half of the country,mostly transitioning from growth cessation to contraction,mainly distributed in the central and western regions.The continuous shrinkage area accounts for about 1/3,mainly distributed at the junction of the three major economic belts.The non-shrinking area accounts for about 15%,mainly distributed in the northwest region and the three major urban agglomerations;3)The intensity of industrial reduction in areas with reduced employment shows a decreasing trend in the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries;4)A high wage level,the age structure with a high proportion of working-age population,and the development of the secondary and tertiary industries can help suppress the contraction of the employed population,while an increase in the minimum wage standard can promote the occurrence of employment population shrinkage.