中国省域旅游经济与可持续发展耦合关系和影响因素研究

Research on the Coupling Relationship and Influencing Factors of Provincial-level Tourism Economy and Sustainable Development in China

推动旅游经济与区域可持续发展系统的耦合协调是实现高质量发展的重要途径。本文以2010—2019年中国内地地区31个省级区划的面板数据为研究单元,通过构建旅游经济与可持续发展“SU曲线”模型、耦合协调度模型、BP神经网络模型,探讨了中国省域旅游经济与可持续发展水平的时空演化规律和系统耦合协调的影响因素。研究发现:(1)省域旅游经济水平与可持续发展能力呈稳步增长态势且具有“东强西弱”空间特征;(2)系统耦合协调度良性增长,但存在局部衰退可能;(3)系统耦合协调主要影响因子为区域经济、旅游规模和社会民生指标;(4)提升省域旅游经济与可持续发展水平必须以生态环境保护为前提,走因地制宜、区域协调的高质量发展道路。

Facilitating the coupling coordination between the tourism economy and regional sustainable development is a pivotal avenue for achieving high-quality development.This study utilizes panel data from 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in China's Mainland spanning from 2010 to 2019 as the research framework.Through the establishment of the"SU Curve"model for tourism economy and sustainable development,a coupling coordination model,and a BP neural network model,this research delves into the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of provincial-level tourism economy and sustainable development in China,as well as the influencing factors behind system coupling coordination.The study reveals:1)The coupling coordination between provincial-level tourism economy and sustainable development in China exhibits a steady upward trend in a time series,undergoing a transition from near-disruption to basic coordination.In terms of spatial patterns,it displays an"East-strong,West-weak"characteristic,with a gradual decline in indices from the eastern coastal regions to the western inland areas,forming a noticeable step-like structure.2)The coupling coordination status between provincial-level tourism economy and sustainable development remains relatively stable,with position changes mostly occurring between adjacent coordination levels.Achieving a breakthrough in a short period is challenging.3)There is a strong correlation between provincial-level tourism economy and sustainable development in China.4)In terms of policy recommendations,it is imperative to have a deeper understanding of the supportive and driving role that sustainable development plays in the tourismeconomy.