弹性退休制度对经济增长和社会福利的影响研究——基于新古典增长模型

A Study on the Impact of the Flexible Retirement System on Economic Growth and Social Welfare:Based on Neoclassical Growth Models

当今世界人口问题日趋严重,中国作为世界人口大国,面临的挑战更是前所未有:在长期人口增长的背景下,中国当前进入人口发展的新时期;同时,还面临1962-1975年高生育率时期出生人口逐渐老龄化所带来的社会老龄化问题。这两个因素迅速加重了现有养老体系的负担。参考已实施弹性退休政策的OECD国家的相关安排,立足现有中国基本养老保险制度,在新古典增长模型中引入老年人退休决策因子,模拟中国实行弹性退休制度,并确定相应的经济动态均衡状态。通过调整模型中各政策参数,探究老年人退休决策对经济增长和福利差距的影响机制。基于研究结果,建议未来应实施弹性退休制度,进一步推行结构性减税和结构性调整养老保险缴费率。

Global population issues are becoming increasingly prominent nowadays.As one of the world s most populous countries,China is facing unprecedented issues,as it has entered a new period of population development after the period of long-term population growth.At the same time,China is also faced with the problem of rapidly deepening social aging as the population born during the high fertility period from 1962 to 1975 enters old age.These two factors have rapidly increased the burden on the existing pension system.This paper refers to the policy arrangement of OECD countries that have implemented flexible retirement.Based on the existing pension insurance system in China,we introduce the retirement decision making factors of the elderly into the neoclassical growth model,simulate China s implementation of the flexible retirement system,and determine the corresponding dynamic equilibrium state of the economy.By adjusting the policy parameters in the model,we explore the impact mechanism of the elderly s retirement decision on economic growth and the welfare gap.Based on the research results,some suggestions are proposed,including implementing a more flexible retirement system,structural tax reduction,and structural adjustment of the endowment insurance contribution rate.