重大突发疫情事件下通勤交通方式转移行为研究

A Study of Commuter Transportation Mode Shift Behavior Under Epidemic Emergencies

为探究重大突发疫情期间通勤方式转移行为的影响机理,本文采用RP和SP调查个人属性、家庭属性以及空间区位特征,并利用CatBoost模型结合SHAP框架探讨不同影响因素对交通方式转移的贡献。结果表明:①拥有小汽车的家庭、高收入家庭、更倾向于在疫情期间选择小汽车通勤。高学历者更倾向于选择小汽车或慢行交通以满足对安全、舒适性或环保的需求;②不同特征组合对交通方式转移的复杂影响,如高收入者更倾向于选择小汽车通勤,而低收入者和高学历者在疫情期间对慢行交通表现出较高的意愿。因此,应该加强公共交通系统在突发事件中的应急响应能力,通过设计灵活的调度系统和多样化的服务模式,提高系统应对能力和服务水平。

To explore the mechanisms underlying shifts in commuting modes within cities during major public health crises,this study employed RP(Revealed Preference)and SP(Stated Preference)surveys to collect data on individual attributes,household characteristics,and spatial location features.The CatBoost model,combined with the SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)framework,was utilized to analyze the contributions of these features to changes in commuting behavior.The results indicate:①Main effect analysis reveals that households with private cars and high-income families are more inclined to use cars for commuting during the pandemic.Individuals with higher education levels are more likely to choose either cars or non-motorized transport to meet their needs for safety,comfort,or environmental concerns;②Interaction effect analysis uncovers the complex impacts of different feature combinations on mode shifts,such as high-income individuals being more likely to choose car commuting,while low-income individuals and those with higher education levels exhibit a greater propensity for non-motorized transport during the pandemic.Therefore,it is recommended to enhance the emergency response capabilities of public transportation systems in the event of emergencies by designing flexible scheduling systems and diversified service modes to improve the system s responsiveness and service quality.