地铁站内暴力恐袭导致人员伤亡过程的演化研究

Evolution Process of Casualties Caused by Violent Terorist Attacks in Subway Stations

针对地铁站内暴力恐袭事件导致人员伤亡过程的演化机理难以刻画问题,研究了地铁站内暴力恐袭事件及其与人员伤亡的关系,刻画人员伤亡演化过程的特征,提出演化过程及其重要性分析方法。研究表明地铁站内暴力恐袭事件导致人员伤亡演化过程具有复杂的原因、类型和过程。基于此绘制暴力恐袭与人员伤亡的演化网络图。该图为简化的空间故障网络,用于描述和预测事件演化过程。建立事件、演化条件和路径的重要性分析方法。实例分析发现:在演化网络中从骚乱到人员伤亡的演化条件最为关键,演化路径越长其重要度越低。起始原因事件的重要度最大,最终结果事件最小。成果可为确定演化路径和模式及制定防治演化方案提供依据。

In view of the difficulty in describing the evolution mechanism of the casualties process caused by violent terrorist attacks in subway stations,this paper studies the relationship between violent terrorist attacks in subway stations and casualties.The characteristics of the human casualty evolution process are described.The evolution process and its importance analysis method are presented.The study shows that the evolution process of casualties caused by violent terrorist attacks in subway stations has complex causes,types and processes.Based on this,the evolution network diagram of violent terrorist attacks and casualties is drawn.The diagram is a simplified space fault network,which is used to describe and predict the evolution process of events.The importance analysis methods of events,evolution conditions and paths are explained and established.The example analysis shows that the evolution condition from disturbance to casualties is the most critical in evolution network.The longer the evolution path,the less important it is.The initial cause event is the most important,and the final result event is the least important.The results can provide the basis for determining the evolution path and model and formulating the evolution control plan.