“双碳”目标下经济高质量发展与碳排放水平协调发展的时空耦合分析

Spatio-temporal coupling coordination between high-quality economic development and carbon emission levels under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

开展经济高质量发展与碳排放水平耦合协调规律分析,对助推经济社会与生态环境协调发展具有重要意义。以2005-2021年我国30个省(区、市)为研究对象,借助耦合协调度模型、Dagum基尼系数分解法和Kernel密度估计法,测算经济高质量发展与碳排放水平的耦合协调关系,进而识别其时空演化格局。结果表明:全国经济高质量发展与碳排放水平耦合协调度整体表现出上升趋势,但不同综合经济区和省(区、市)间的耦合协调关系存在空间分布不均衡问题,空间差异主要受区域间差异和超变密度的影响;同时各综合经济区耦合协调度的动态演进特征差异较大,其中黄河中游经济区和西北经济区极化现象较为明显。因此,应从着力提升碳排放控制力度、优化区域合作协调关系以及解决区域间发展不平衡问题等方面出发,提出实现经济社会发展全面绿色转型的相关政策建议。

Analysing the coupling and coordination rules between high-quality economic development and carbon emission levels is crucial for promoting the harmonious development of the economy,society and ecological environment.The study focused on 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2005 to2021.By utilizing the coupling coordination degree model,Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,and Kernel density estimation method,the coupling and coordination relationship between high-quality economic development and carbon emission levels was measured and its spatiotemporal evolution pattern was identified.The findings revealed an overall upward trend in the coupling and coordination between high-quality economic development and carbon emission levels nationwide.However,there were spatial distribution imbalances in the coupling and coordination among different comprehensive economic zones and provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities),mainly attributed to inter-regional differences and hyper-variable density.Moreover,the dynamic evolution of the coupling coordination degree varied significantly across comprehensive economic zones,with a noticeable polarization phenomenon in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Economic Zone and the Northwest Economic Zone.Consequently,relevant policy recommendations were proposed,including focusing on the improvement of carbon emission control,enhancing regional cooperation and coordination,and addressing regional development disparities to achieve a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.