中国民航业能源消费温室气体排放特征与影响因素

Characteristics and influencing factors of greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption in China's civil aviation industry

为推动中国民航业打赢节能减排攻坚战,助力绿色低碳交通高质量发展,立足国内和国际航线双重单元,针对CO_(2)、N_(2)O和CH_(4)多元温室气体,基于IPCC清单算法分析2015—2022年中国民航业能源消费温室气体的排放特征并研判关键排放源,结合LMDI分解模型实证分析能源消费强度、运输经济效益、产业内部结构、产业整体结构、经济发展水平、人口规模水平对碳排放的异质性影响效应。结果表明:2015—2022年温室气体排放总体呈先升后降趋势。从航线类型看,国内航线运输周转量主体地位带动高水平温室气体排放;从气体品种看,CO_(2)排放贡献最大。能源消费强度效应为遏制碳排放的重要因素;运输经济效益的影响效应随运输收入水平发生变化,2021年以来成为减缓碳排放增长的关键因素;产业内部结构效应与碳排放的整体变化趋势较为同步,这是由于民航业产值比重增加会带动运输能源消费总量增加;产业整体结构效应由碳排放激励因素转为抑制因素,与第三产业占比变化趋势吻合;经济发展水平效应为碳排放关键激励因素;人口规模水平通过人口数量和年龄结构的综合效应呈现正向驱动作用。

In order to promote the civil aviation industry to win the battle of energy conservation and emission reduction and promote the high-quality development of green and low-carbon transportation,based on the dual units of domestic and international routes,the IPCC inventory algorithm was used to analyze the emission characteristics of multiple greenhouse gases(GHGs) such as CO_(2),N2O,and CH4 from energy consumption in China's civil aviation industry from 2015 to 2022 and identify the key emission sources.The LMDI decomposition model was used to empirically analyze the differential effects of energy consumption intensity,transportation economic benefit,internal and overall industrial structure,economic development level,and population size level on carbon emissions.The results showed that from 2015 to 2022,the GHG emissions showed an overall trend of first increasing and then decreasing.From the perspective of route types,the dominant position of revenue tonne-kilometers(RTK) or revenue passenger-kilometers(RPK) of domestic routes drived high-level GHGs emissions.From the perspective of gas species,CO_(2) emissions contributed the most.The effect of energy consumption intensity was an important factor in curbing carbon emissions.The impact of transportation economic benefit varied with the level of transportation income and had become a key factor in slowing down the growth of carbon emissions since 2021.The internal structural effect of the industry was relatively synchronized with the change of carbon emission,and the main reason was that the increase in the proportion of output value of the civil aviation industry would drive an increase in the total consumption of transportation energy.The overall structure effect of the industry changed from an incentive factor of carbon emissions to an inhibitory factor,which was consistent with the changing trend of the proportion of the tertiary industry.The effect of economic development level was a key factor in promoting the growth of carbon emissions.The population size level showed a positive driving effect through the combined effect of population size and age structure.