1961-2021年青海省风光水气候要素和资源时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal Change in Climate Variables and Resources of Wind,Solar Radiation and Precipitation in Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2021

为系统评估青海省风光水气候要素在清洁能源开发和保障方面的潜力,本研究基于1961-2021年青海省境内51个气象站点的逐日10 m高度风速、日照时数及降水观测资料,分析了青海全年及四季风、光、水气候要素和相关资源的时空变化特征。研究发现:(1)青海省年平均风速、太阳辐射和降水量分别为2.67 m·s^(-1)、6084.2 MJ·m^(-2)和299.7 mm。风速总体呈现西部大、东部小的特点,青海西部及青海湖环湖等地区风速超过3 m·s^(-1),达到风能资源开发标准。全境年太阳辐射均超过5040 MJ·m^(-2),达国标“很丰富”等级,柴达木盆地达“最丰富”等级,适宜太阳能资源开发。降水量自东南向西北递减。青海省的风、光、水资源存在季节互补性,呈现出“春季风大、光好、水少,夏季风小、光好、水丰”的规律。(2)在气候变化背景下,青海省年平均风速和年总太阳辐射以0.16 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1)和29.04 MJ·m^(-2)·(10a)^(-1)的速率显著降低,海西西部和中部地区变化幅度最大,但仍维持在风能和光伏资源开发标准范围内。降水量以8.85 mm·(10a)^(-1)的速率显著增多,玉树西部、海西东部等地区增幅最大。春季风速降低最显著,夏季太阳辐射减小速率最快但降水大幅增加。总云量增多是太阳辐射和降水变化的可能原因。(3)青海风速和太阳辐射达到适宜开发标准的地区受影响较小且极端性减弱,可保障清洁能源稳定开发。青海西部(如唐古拉山)的风能资源、柴达木盆地的太阳能资源、长江、黄河和澜沧江三大流域的水能资源仍具有较大开发潜力。本研究结果可为发展风光水多能互补清洁能源开发提供理论依据,助力国家“双碳”目标的实现和青海省高质量发展。

In order to evaluate the potential of wind,solar radiation and precipitation in guaranteeing the development of clean energy comprehensively,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial changes in climate variables and resources of wind speed,solar radiation and precipitation in Qinghai Province throughout the year and four seasons from 1961 to 2021 based on the observation data of daily 10-meter-height wind speed,sunshine duration and precipitation at 51 meteorological stations.The results are as follows:(1)The annual average wind speed,solar radiation and precipitation in Qinghai Province are 2.67 m·s^(-1),6084.2 MJ·m^(-2),and 299.7 mm,respectively.Wind speed tends to be higher in the western regions and lower in the east,which exceeds 3 m/s and reaches the standard for wind energy resource development in western Qinghai.The annual solar radiation in the entire Province exceeds 5040 MJ·m^(-2),and reaches the"very rich"level according to China Solar energy GB Standards.The solar radiation of Qaidam Basin is at its highest abundance level,which is ideal for solar energy resource development.Precipitation generally decreases from southeast to northwest.The resources of wind,solar radiation,and precipitation in Qinghai Province exhibits seasonal complementarity,characterized by a pattern of“strong winds,good sunlight,and less water in spring,whereas weak winds,good sunlight,and abundant water in summer”.(2)Under climate change,the annual average wind speed and total solar radiation in Qinghai Province show a significant decrease at rates of 0.16 m·s−1·10a−1and 29.04 MJ·m^(-2)·(10a)^(-1),respectively.The western and central parts of Haixi are most affected by these changes,but the wind speed and solar radiation still remain within the acceptable range for wind energy and photovoltaic resource development.Meanwhile,precipitation increases significantly at a rate of 8.85 mm·(10a)^(-1),with the largest increase observed in western Yushu,eastern Haixi and northern Guoluo.The most significant decrease in wind speed is observed in spring,while summer solar radiation decreases at the fastest rate but with a substantial increase in precipitation.The changes in solar radiation and precipitation could be ascribed to the increased cloud cover in this region.(3)The changes in the areas where wind speed and solar radiation meet suitable development standards in Qinghai Province are not significant with reduced variabilities,which could ensure the stable development of clean energy.Wind energy resources in western Qinghai(such as Tanggula Mountains),solar energy resources in the Qaidam Basin,and water energy resources in the three major river basins of the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Lancang River have great potential for development.Overall,the results provide a theoretical foundation for the development of a balanced clean energy system encompassing wind,solar and hydropower.This contributes to achieving national"dual carbon"goals and enhancing the high-quality development of Qinghai Province.