基于logistic回归模型的生态系统服务簇变化驱动力分析——以关天经济区为例

Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Bundle Change Based on Logistic Regression Model:A Case Study of Guantian Economic Zone

生态系统服务簇(ESB)是多种生态系统服务在特定空间上形成的不同组合,探索影响其变化的驱动因素有助于理解ESB的功能变化特征,为国土空间优化提供理论支撑。以2000-2020年关中-天水经济区为例,在量化土壤保持、NPP、游憩服务、生境质量和粮食生产5种生态系统服务的基础上,利用自组织映射网络识别ESB,并探讨了影响不同ESB变化的驱动因素。结果表明,1)土壤保持、NPP、生境质量和游憩服务4种生态系统服务呈现出中西部低、南北山系高的空间分布格局,而粮食生产则恰好相反。2)研究区被划分为4种ESB,其中ESB1和ESB2主要分布在秦岭地区,ESB1的土壤保持服务显著高于ESB2;ESB3主要位于关中平原城市建成区和天水市,簇中5种生态系统服务水平均较低;ESB4则集中分布在关中平原地区,以粮食生产服务为主。3)ESB间的转换主要表现为6种类型,且其主要驱动因素存在一定差异。即:土地利用对4种ESB的转换均有重要驱动作用,其中以耕地和建筑用地的影响最显著;同时,ESB1、ESB4还受到降水等自然因素的影响,ESB2、ESB3、ESB4则多受GDP等社会经济因素的影响。该研究为关中-天水经济区的生态保护和可持续发展提供了新视角和科学依据。

An ecosystem service bundle(ESB)is a combination of multiple ecosystem services in a specific spatial area.Exploring the driving factors that influence these changes can help analyze the functional characteristics and impact mechanisms of ESB,providing theoretical support for the formulation of national space optimization strategies.Taking Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone as an example,this study quantifies the soil conservation,NPP,recreation services,habitat quality,and grain production,and uses the self-organizing mapping network to identify ESB.This reveals the driving factors that influence the different ESB.The results(from 2000 to 2020)showed that:1)the soil conservation,NPP,habitat quality,and recreation services showed a pattern of low in the middle and west and high in the north and south of the mountain,whereas grain production was the opposite.In terms of quantity,NPP has been increasing year by year,whereas soil conservation and food production have shown an increase followed by a decrease.2)The study area was divided into four types of ESB,of which ESB1 and ESB2 were mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains area,and the soil conservation service of ESB1 was significantly higher than that of ESB2.ESB3 was mainly located in the urban built-up areas of the Guanzhong Plain and Tianshui City,and the levels of all five ecosystem services in the bundle were relatively low.ESB4 is concentrated in the Guanzhong Plain area and is mainly dominated by grain production.3)There are six types of conversion between ESBs,and the main driving factors of each type are different.Land use has an important driving role in the conversion of all four types of ESB,with the most significant impact of cultivated land and built-up land;at the same time,ESB1 and ESB4 were also influenced by precipitation and other natural factors,while ESB2,ESB3,and ESB4 were mostly influenced by GDP and other social and economic factors.This study provides a new perspective and scientific basis for the ecological protection and sustainable development of the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone.