低空经济市场空间预测研究

Research on market space forecast of low-altitude economy

低空经济具有产业链条长、辐射范围广的特点,涵盖低空制造、低空基础设施、低空应用和低空服务保障4个板块。为衡量低空经济产业的经济价值,利用比例推算法和成本效益法分别对低空制造、低空基础设施、低空应用3类产业的市场空间开展测算,并利用政策影响模型和时间序列预测模型对测算结果进行加权修正,从而明确低空经济未来发展趋势。

Low-altitude economy is characterized by its extensive industrial chain and wide radiation scope,covering low-altitude manufacturing,low-altitude infrastructure,low-altitude applications,and low-altitude service support.To evaluate the economic value of low-altitude economy industries,this paper employs both the proportional extrapolation and the cost-benefit analysis to estimate the market potential of low-altitude manufacturing,low-altitude infrastructure,and low-altitude applications.Furthermore,the paper utilizes a policy impact model and a time-series forecasting model to perform weighted corrections on the estimation results,thereby clarifying the future development trends of low-altitude economy.