面向2035的我国高等教育类型结构预测及优化分析

Prediction and Optimization Analysis of the Type Structure of Higher Education in China Toward 2035

我国当前研究型大学和学生规模相对较小、高职院校和学生规模总体占比偏大,这种顶部陡峭、底部沉重的高等教育类型结构不能与产业结构转型和国家创新发展相适应。本研究在美国高等教育普及化以来类型结构的变化基础上,结合中美两国高等教育毛入学率和人均GDP数据指标,采用自回归分布滞后计量模型,对我国2035年的高等教育类型结构进行优化预测,并根据实证结果和分析提出了我国2035年的高等教育类型结构适宜目标。要实现这一目标,需要尽快扭转我国高等教育增长模式,加大近期调整力度;通过扩大“双一流”高校数量和校均培养规模来扩大优质高等教育资源,建立适应经济社会发展新需求和中国式现代化进程的普及化高等教育类型结构。

The current research universities and student scale in China are relatively small,while the overall proportion of vocational colleges and students is relatively large.This type of higher education structure with a steep top and a heavy bottom cannot adapt to the transformation of industrial structure and national innovation and development.Based on the changes in the type structure of higher education since the popularization of higher education in the United States,this study combines data indicators such as gross enrollment rate and per capita GDP of higher education,and adopts an autoregressive distributed lag model to optimize and predict the type structure of higher education in China by 2035.Based on empirical results,it is recommended that the appropriate target for the type structure of higher education in China by 2035 is:the proportion of students in research-oriented universities is about 22%,the proportion of students in other undergraduate colleges is about 40%,and the proportion of students in vocational colleges is about 38%.To achieve this goal,it is necessary to quickly reverse the growth model of higher education in China and increase the recent adjustment efforts;It is needed to expand the number of“double first-class”colleges and universities and the average cultivating scale,especially the undergraduate training scale,in order to establish a universal higher education type structure that meets the new needs of economic and social development and the process of Chinese path to modernization.