中职升学率的时空分异特征及影响因素研究——基于2012-2021省域面板数据的分析

A Study on the Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Secondary Vocational School Promotion Rate:Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data 2012-2021

随着职业教育作为类型教育的确立,中职学校“就业与升学并重”的时代逐渐到来。研究以2012-2021十年间31个省份的面板数据为样本对象,可视化呈现了中职升学率的时空分异特征,并采用固定效应回归模型,从区域经济水平、家庭资本、学校教育条件三个一级指标的七个二级指标探究中职升学率时空分异的影响因素。结果显示,人均GDP、专科以上学历比、人均拥有公共图书馆藏量、生均公共预算支出四项指标显著正向影响中职升学率,对中职升学率的提高有着积极的促进作用。研究建议,各级政府应积极拓展中职升学渠道,响应职校生的升学诉求;职业学校应紧密对接区域经济发展需要,培养高层次技能型人才;家庭应进一步提高对子女教育的资本投入,赋能中职生进阶成长;各级政府还应提高职业学校的生均教育经费投入水平,指导职业学校合理设计生均教育经费开支比例,赋能中职学校内涵式发展。

With the establishment of vocational education as a type of education,the era of“equal emphasis on employment and further education”in secondary vocational schools is coming.The study visualizes the spatial-temporal variations of secondary school promotion rate using panel data of 31 provinces during the decade of 2012-2021,and adopts a fixed-effects regression model to explore the influencing factors of the spatial-temporal variations of secondary vocational school promotion rate from the seven secondary indicators of the three primary indicators of the regional economic level,family capital,and school education conditions.The results show that four indicators,namely,GDP per capita,ratio of associate degree and higher,per capita possession of public library collections,and per capita per student public budget expenditure have a significant positive implication on the promotion rate of secondary vocational schools,and positively contribute to the improvement of secondary vocational school promotion rate.The study suggests that governments at all levels should actively expand the channels for secondary vocational school promotion and respond to the demand of vocational school students for further education;vocational schools should closely match the needs of regional economic development and cultivate high-level skilled talents;families should further increase the capital investment in their children's education,so as to empower secondary vocational school students to advance;and governments at all levels should also increase the level of average per capita education funding for vocational schools,and provide guidance to vocational schools in rationally designing the ratio of average per capita education funding,so as to empower the connotative development of secondary vocational schools.