耕地“提质扩容”对中国粮食生产的影响分析

The influence of cultivated land"improving quality and expanding capacity"on grain production in China

耕地保护不仅从质量上提高农业生产能力,还从数量上拓展农业生产空间,耕地“提质扩容”释放的粮食产能对保障粮食安全意义重大。运用局部均衡模型模拟高标准农田建设、黑土地保护、盐碱地综合利用对粮食生产的影响。结果显示:到2030年,(1)高标准农田建设使粮食产量提高4%,碳排放减少3.8%,增产效应上改造提升大于新建;(2)黑土地保护显著提高玉米和大豆产量,若50%黑土地实行玉米大豆轮作,大豆能增产1.9%~5.8%;(3)盐碱地综合利用进一步释放增产潜能,投资增产效果上改造盐碱地大于新建高标准农田,但仍面临水资源约束、开发利用难度大等挑战。未来应高度重视耕地数量和质量保护,关注盐碱地综合利用,推进耕地资源“提质扩容”,夯实粮食安全根基。

Cultivated land protection not only improves agricultural production capacity in quality,but also expands production space in quantity.The grain production capacity released by"improving quality and expanding capacity"of cultivated land is of great significance to ensuring food security.A partial equilibrium model is used to simulate the effects of highstandard farmland construction,black soil protection and comprehensive utilization of salinealkali soil on grain production.The results show that,by 2030,(1)high-standard farmland construction will increase grain yield by 4%,reduce carbon emissions by 3.8%,and the production-increasing effect of upgrading is greater than that of new construction.(2)Black soil protection will significantly increase corn and soybean yields.If 50%of black soil protection areas adopt the corn and soybean rotation technology model,soybean yields will increase by 1.9%-5.8%.(3)The comprehensive utilization of saline-alkali soil will further release the potential for increasing grain production,and the effect of investment in upgrading saline-alkali soil is greater than that of new high-standard farmland,but it will still face multiple challenges such as water resource constraints and difficulty in development and utilization.In the future,we should attach great importance to the protection of the quantity and quality of cultivated land,pay attention to the comprehensive utilization of saline-alkali soil,and promote the improvement and expansion of cultivated land resources,so as to consolidate the foundation of food security.