基于“风险-健康-服务”的生态安全评价框架构建及模拟预测--以淮河流域为例

Assessment framework and simulation prediction for ecological security based on"risk-health-services":A case study of the Huaihe River Basin

生态安全评价和预测为生态安全格局构建和空间优化提供了重要支撑,是生态安全管理与决策的有效手段。以淮河流域为例,从生态风险、生态系统健康和生态系统服务三个维度构建生态安全评价框架,揭示2000—2020年生态安全的时空分布格局;利用斑块级土地利用变化模拟模型识别影响生态安全的内外部关键因素,预测潜在风险区。结果表明:2000—2020年淮河流域生态安全表现出先升高后降低的趋势,整体呈现“东北—西南高、东南—西北低”的分布格局;相对安全等级和一般安全等级面积占比最大(均在30%以上),转移面积最多。相比于自然和社会经济等外部因素,风险、健康和服务等内部因素对生态安全的影响更大,且多以调节生态系统服务和人类足迹等因素为主导。到2030年淮河流域生态安全状况相较2020年有所下降,安全等级区域在东北部山地丘陵地带和西南部林农交错地带的空间变化最为明显。研究结果不仅是对现有生态安全评价和预测研究的有益补充,而且对淮河流域的生态安全建设具有一定指导意义。

The assessment and prediction of watershed ecological security(ES)provides support for the construction and optimization of the ES pattern,which is an effective means for ecosystem management and decision-making.Here,we established an ES assessment framework from three dimensions of ecological risk,ecosystem health,and ecosystem services to reveal the spatio-temporal distribution of ES in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB)of China,from 2000 to 2020.We identified key internal and external factors affecting ES and predicted potential risk zones using the patch-generating land use simulation model.The results indicated that the ES in the HRB showed an increasing and then decreasing trend from 2000 to 2020,with an overall distribution pattern of high in the northeast-southwest and low in the northwest-southeast.Relatively safe level and generally safe level had the largest percentage of the study area(both above 30%),and both transfer the most area.Internal factors of ES(i.e.,risk,health,and service factors)were influential than external factors(i.e.,natural and socio-economic factors),largely due to regulating ecosystem service and human footprint factors.The ES status of the HRB in 2030 declined compared with that in 2020,with significant spatial changes in safe level in the mountainous and hilly areas of the northeast and the farming-forest interface of the southwest.Our findings are not only an important complement to existing studies on ES assessment and prediction,but also a guide to the ecological security construction of the HRB.