“海丝”沿线国家渔业贸易隐含能源流动网络特征及影响因素

The characteristics and influencing factors of the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

采用多区域投入产出模型,测度了“21世纪海上丝绸之路”(以下简称“海丝”)沿线国家的渔业隐含能源强度和渔业贸易隐含能源,在此基础上构建了“海丝”沿线国家渔业贸易隐含能源流动网络,并以复杂网络分析方法测度了该网络特征,通过QAP回归模型定量解析了网络的影响因素。结果表明:(1)“海丝”沿线国家渔业能源利用效率整体不断提高;(2)“海丝”沿线国家渔业贸易隐含能源流动网络呈现小世界性特征,网络节点存在非均衡特征;(3)“海丝”沿线国家渔业贸易隐含能源流动网络可分为“中介人”“净溢出”“双向溢出”和“净受益”四个板块,板块的空间分布具有较明显的地域集中性;(4)在经济发展水平、渔业贸易、资源禀赋等因素的驱动下,“海丝”沿线国家渔业贸易隐含能源流动网络趋于复杂和稳定,各影响因素对不同板块的影响存在差异性。

In this paper,we use the multi-regional input-output model to calculate the embodied energy intensity of fishery in countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road(MSR)and embodied energy in fishery trade among countries along the MSR.On this basis,we construct the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the MSR,measure the network characteristics with the complex network analysis method,and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the network through the QAP regression model.The results show that:(1)The indirect energy intensity of fishery is the major component of the embodied energy intensity of fishery,and the improvement of energy use efficiency of fishery in countries along the MSR is primarily attributed to the reduction of the indirect energy intensity of fishery in these countries.Fossil energy is the main energy used both directly and indirectly in fishery production in countries along the MSR,while the energy sector and transport sector are the major sectoral sources of indirect energy use in fishery production in countries along the MSR.(2)The scale and density of the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the MSR are relatively stable,and the network shows the characteristics of complexity and the small world.There are disequilibrium characteristics in the nodes of the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the MSR,and the high-strength nodes account for more than 80%of the total embodied energy flow of the network.(3)Block model analysis shows that the"two-way spillover"plate with Asian countries(excluding West Asia)as the main body and the"net spillover"plate with South Africa as the core play a leading role in the network,and the"net benefit"plate with West Asian countries and African countries as the main body plays the role of"beneficiary",which is in a marginal position in the network,while the"broker"plate of Mediterranean European countries as the main body plays an intermediating and bridging role in the network.(4)The QAP regression results show that driven by factors such as the economic development level,fishery trade,fishery embodied energy intensity,resource endowment,and trade cost,the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the MSR tends to be complex and stable.Among them,differences in the economic development level have the greatest impact on the embodied energy flow network in fishery trade among countries along the MSR.There are differences in the effects of influencing factors on different plates.