基于扩展系统动力学模型的电力碳排放量预测方法

Carbon Emission Prediction Method for Power Sector Based on Extended System Dynamics Model

在“双碳”的背景下,以中国碳排放的主要行业电力行业为研究对象,基于扩展的人口、富裕和技术回归随机影响模型(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STIRPAT),应用岭回归分析,对经济规模与电力碳排放之间的关系进行环境库兹涅兹曲线(environmental Kuznets curve,EKC)检验分析,进一步构建系统动力学模型,对中国电力行业2020—2040年的碳排放仿真模拟,预测达峰时间。若在该时段不同的方案中出现了峰值拐点,则在定峰前提下,设置三种不同的情景探究电力碳中和路径。研究结果表明:人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)指标因素对电力碳排放的正向贡献度最大,火电占比指标因素对电力碳排放的负向贡献度最大;经济发展水平和电力行业碳排放之间存在着“倒U型”关系,符合EKC理论。基于目前新政策努力下,中国电力行业碳排放可以实现在2030年之前碳达峰的目标,预计将在2029年达峰,峰值区间约为49~50亿t。2029年电力行业完成碳达峰后,在情景3的模式下预计2060年前实现碳中和。调整电源结构,严控火电占比,优化产业结构和碳捕集、利用与封存(carbon capture,utilization and storage,CCUS)技术的普及等都有助于电力行业“双碳”目标的实现。

In the context of"dual carbon",this article focuses on the main carbon emitting industry in China,the power industry,as the research object.Based on the stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT)model,using ridge regression analysis,the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)test and analysis of the relationship between economic scale and power carbon emissions were carried out,and the system dynamics model was further constructed to simulate the carbon emissions of China's power industry from 2020 to 2040,and the peak time was predicted.If there is a peak inflection point in different schemes during this period,three different scenarios are set to explore the carbon neutral path of electricity under the premise of a fixed peak.The results show that the gross domestic product(GDP)index factor has the largest positive contribution to electric power carbon emissions,and the thermal power ratio index factor has the largest negative contribution to electric power carbon emissions.There is an"inverted U-shaped"relationship between the level of economic development and the carbon emissions of the power industry,which is in line with the EKC theory.Based on the current new policy efforts,China's power industry carbon emissions can achieve the goal of carbon peak before 2030,which is expected to peak in 2029,the peak range of about 4.9 to 5 billion tons.After the power industry completes the carbon peak in 2029,the power industry can achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under scenario 3.Adjusting the power supply structure,strictly controlling the proportion of thermal power,optimizing the industrial structure,and popularizing carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS)technology will all contribute to the"dual-carbon"goal of the power industry.