人口密度对城市宜居性的影响:基于中国114个大城市的实证分析

The impact of population density on urban livability:an empirical analysis based on 114 large cities in China

本文在探究中国114个大城市宜居指数演变特征的基础上,构建面板门槛模型,深入分析了人口密度对城市宜居性的影响。研究发现:1)中国大城市宜居性在2006―2013年间显著提升,随后进入相对稳定期,但城市间差异加剧。2)人口密度对城市宜居性有显著负向影响,但其影响效果呈倒“U”型曲线特征,其中,低密度情境下,人口密度对城市宜居性促进效应明显;中密度情境下,人口密度对城市宜居性的促进作用减弱;高密度情境下,人口密度对不同规模城市的宜居性影响呈显著的异质性,具备较强自我调节机制与资源优化配置能力的城市能够有效减缓高人口密度所引发的负面效应。基于此,从城市人口规模控制与分布、生态环境保护、优化公共服务资源配置、增强城市治理的民主性4个方面提出相关建议。

On the basis of exploring the evolution characteristics of the livability index of 114 large cities in China,this paper constructs a panel threshold model to analyze the impact of population density on urban livability.The results showed that:1)the livability of large cities in China improved significantly from 2006 to 2013,and then entered a relatively stable period,but the differences between cities increased.2)Population density has a significant negative impact on urban livability,but its effect is characterized by an inverted‘U’curve.Among them,in the low-density situation,population density has a significant promotion effect on urban livability;in the context of medium density,the promotion effect of population density on urban livability is weakened;in the context of high density,the impact of population density on the livability of cities of different sizes is significantly heterogeneous.Cities with strong self-regulation mechanisms and optimal resource allocation capabilities can effectively mitigate the negative effects caused by high population density.Based on these conclusions,policy implications are proposed from four aspects:urban population size control and distribution,ecological environment protection,optimization of public service resource allocation,and enhancement of democracy in urban governance.