灵活就业对收入流动性的影响——机会与风险的双重逻辑

Impact of Flexible Employment on Income Mobility——Dual Logic of Opportunities and Risks

基于CFPS(中国家庭追踪调查)2016年、2018年、2020年三期数据,分析样本群体的收入流动性变化,并实证检验灵活就业对收入流动性的影响。收入转移矩阵表明,样本群体整体收入流动性下降,收入呈极化趋势。回归结果表明,灵活就业增加了个体收入向下流动的可能,并通过增加工作中断概率与城乡户籍分割扩大了这种可能。在增加灵活就业岗位供给的同时,应建立有针对性的社会保险与劳动保障制度,有效发挥灵活就业对经济发展与个体福利改善的积极作用。

Based on three waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2016,2018,and 2020,this study analyzed changes in income mobility among the sample population,and empirically tested the impact of flexible employment on income mobility.The income transition matrix indicated that overall income mobility among the sample population has decreased,with income showing a polarizing trend.Regression results showed that flexible employment increased the likelihood of downward income mobility and expanded this likelihood through increased probability of work interruptions and urban-rural household registration divide.While increasing the supply of flexible jobs,targeted social insurance and labor protection systems should be established to effectively leverage the positive role of flexible employment in economic development and individual welfare improvement.