我国煤矿安全形势变化特征——基于数理统计分析

Characteristics of Coal Mine Safety Situation Change in China--Based on Mathematical Statistical Analysis

煤矿安全生产对于我国经济发展和煤矿高效生产至关重要,基于2013-2022年我国煤矿较大及以上事故统计数据,采用数理统计方法和致因分析从事故等级、事故类型、区域特征、月、日、时间段、事故诱因七个维度进行了研究,并分析了事故起因.研究结果表明:2013-2022年我国煤矿较大及以上事故共发生269起,死亡1926人,煤矿较大及以上事故死亡人数和事故发生数整体上呈下降趋势,6年未发生特别重大事故,煤矿安全生产趋势整体持续稳定向好;瓦斯事故发生次数和死亡人数最多,仍然是煤矿安全“第一杀手”,顶板事故仅次于瓦斯,主要以较大事故为主.贵州省煤矿事故发生起数和死亡人数最多,南方地质条件复杂易导致事故发生;12月发生的事故次数最多,该月份为完成全年生产计划关键点,重视生产程度高于安全,4月份死亡人数最多,安全意识薄弱,不安全行为增加,导致煤矿事故的发生;单日发生次数超过10次的占比高,发生事故概率大;8:00~15:59时间段内事故发生数最多,且易发生特别重大事故.违规操作是煤矿事故发生的主要原因,其次是地质因素,技术条件占比较小。

Coal mine safety production is crucial for China's economic development and efficient coal mine production,based on the 2013-2022 our country coal mine larger and above accident statistics,using mathematical statistical method and cause analysis from the accident level,accident type,regional characteristics,month,day,time,accident cause seven dimensions are studied,and analyzes the cause of the accident.The research results show that from 2013 to 2022,the number of deaths and accidents in coal mine is on the whole,no particularly major accidents occurred in 6 years,and the overall trend of coal mine safety production is stable and positive;the number of gas accidents and the"first killer"of coal mine safety;the roof accidents are second only to gas,mainly major accidents.The largest number of accidents and the number of deaths in Guizhou Province,and the complicated geological conditions in southern China easily lead to the most accidents;the annual production plan than safety in April cause the occurrence of accidents;the high proportion of more than 10 times in one day,high probability of accidents;the largest number of accidents between 8:00 and 15:59,and particularly serious accidents are likely to occur.Illegal operation is the main cause of coal mine accidents,followed by geological factors,and the technical conditions are relatively small.