黄河中下游沿线城市碳—水足迹演进与时空差异研究

Research on the Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Carbon and Water Footprints of Cities along the Middle and Lower Yellow River

探究黄河流域碳—水生态的可持续性对推动该流域生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义。基于生态足迹视角,聚焦2010—2022年黄河中下游25个沿线城市碳—水情况,并引入足迹广度、深度及莫兰指数评价方法,研究了其时空格局特征。结果显示:(1)研究区域均存在碳—水赤字问题,其中榆林等能源富集区域的碳赤字和下游地区的水赤字更为严重,山东各市碳—水生态环境均面临巨大压力;(2)碳—水足迹广度高值区大多集中在下游各市,自然资本流量不足。虽有些城市足迹深度值为1,但都有动用资本存量的趋势;(3)碳足迹广度和深度均表现出比较显著的空间相关性,水足迹深度和广度有非常显著的空间相关性;(4)格兰杰因果检验表明,碳足迹对水足迹有单项格兰杰因果关系,要加大节能减排力度。研究结果为明晰黄河流域生态可持续性、实现“水资源—碳排放—经济效益—生态效益”四方协调发展格局提供借鉴和参考。

This study has been an attempt to explore the sustainability of carbon water ecology in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River through carbon water footprint,the carbon and water conditions of 25 cities along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2010 to 2022 were evaluated,and characteristics of its temporal and spatial patterns were studied in combination with the methods of footprint width,depth and Moran index.The results show that:(1)Carbon-water deficits exist in all study areas,among which carbon deficits in energy-rich areas such as Yulin and water deficits in downstream areas are more serious,and the carbon-water ecological environment of all cities in Shandong is facing tremendous pressure;(2)The carbon-water footprint is high.Most of the districts are concentrated in downstream cities,and the natural capital flow is insufficient.Although some cities have a footprint depth value of 1,they have a tendency to exceed the natural original length value;(3)Significant spatial correlation is found with regards to carbon footprint width and depth.There is a significant spatial correlation between the depth and breadth of the water footprint;(4)The Granger causality test shows that the carbon footprint has a single Granger causality relationship to the water footprint,so energy conservation and emission reduction must be increased.The study provides reference for clarifying the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River Basin and realizing the coordinated development pattern of"water resources,carbon emissions,economic benefits and ecological benefits".