国家间政治关系如何影响经贸往来——基于GDELT大数据对俄罗斯的实证研究

How Can Inter-state Political Relations Influence Bilateral Economic and Trade Exchanges?--Empirical Study of Russia Based on GDELT Big Data

在国际局势动荡加剧的背景下,国家间政治关系如何影响双边经贸合作是值得关注的现实问题。本文利用2004—2022年俄罗斯与20个主要贸易伙伴国家的月度面板数据,应用贸易引力模型分析双边政治关系波动对经贸往来的影响。结果表明:国家间政治关系波动会显著影响俄罗斯与主要贸易伙伴国家的双边贸易往来,政治关系恶化会显著降低进口贸易,但其抑制作用在出口端并不明显,这从侧面体现出“去工业化”进程及输入型增长模式下俄罗斯经济结构的深层隐患。异质性分析结果显示:俄罗斯与欧洲国家、发达国家贸易往来更易受政治关系波动影响,而与非欧洲国家、发展中国家的贸易相对稳定。为解决反向因果造成的内生性问题,本文控制了双向固定效应,并分别使用2014年克里米亚事件和联合国大会投票数据作为政治关系的工具变量。此外,采用滞后项重新计量后,通过对比滞后不同期数的系数发现,双边政治关系波动对出口端的短期时滞影响更加显著,对进口端的长期时滞影响更加显著。

Amid the increasingly turbulent international landscape,it is crucial to examine how inter-state political relations influence bilateral economic and trade cooperation.This study employs monthly panel data of Russia and its 20 major trading partner countries from 2004 to 2022 and the gravity model of trade to investigate the impact of fluctuations in bilateral political relations on economic and trade exchanges.The findings indicate that fluctuations in inter-state political relations can significantly affect bilateral trade between Russia and its major trading partner countries;the deterioration of political relations markedly reduces imports;however,the inhibitory effect on exports is less pronounced.This situation indirectly underscores the deep-rooted challenges inherent in Russia's economic structure in the context of deindustrialization and an import-led growth model.The heterogeneity analysis shows that Russia's trade with European and developed countries is more susceptible to fluctuations in political relations,whereas its trade with non-European and developing countries exhibits greater stability.To address the endogeneity problem arising from reverse causality,this paper controls for two-way fixed effects and uses the 2014 Crimean events and UN General Assembly voting data as instrumental variables for political relations.After re-measurement using the lagged term,by comparing the coefficients of different lagged periods,this paper reveals that fluctuations in bilateral political relations exert a more significant impact on the short-term time lag on the export side and the longterm time lag on the import side.