基于地理探测器的艾比湖流域生态脆弱性评价及驱动力分析

Ecological Vulnerability Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of the Ebinur Lake Basin

对艾比湖流域生态脆弱性进行评价,并对其驱动力进行定量分析,为区域生态环境保护与建设、生态资源合理开发利用提供理论支撑。从自然因素和人类因素2个方面选择高程、坡度、坡向、植被覆盖度、年降水、地表温度、河网密度、土壤类型、土地利用类型、人均GDP及人口密度等11个指标,构建艾比湖流域生态脆弱性评价体系,利用主观权重与客观权重相结合的方法确定指标权重,选取2000、2010及2020年3个时间点进行流域生态脆弱性(EVI)研究和驱动力分析。结果表明:近20年来艾比湖流域生态脆弱性以中度脆弱与轻度脆弱为主,占总面积的85.53%,整体上生态脆弱性有所改善。地理探测器分析表明,生态环境的空间分布特征是多种影响因子共同交互作用的结果,植被覆盖度和土地利用类型是影响区域生态脆弱性状况的主要因子。2000年、2010年和2020年生态脆弱性具体解释力的值分别为0.592、0.721和0.711。

As an important ecological barrier on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,the Ebinur Lake basin is increasingly affected by both natural conditions and human activities,and ecological and environmental problems are becoming more serious.In this paper,Ebinur Lake was selected for study,and we evaluated the ecological vulnerability of the basin in 2000,2010 and 2020,and quantitative-ly analyzed the driving forces.The aim of the study was to provide theoretical support for the conserva-tion and restoration of the ecological environment,and the rational development and utilization of the ba-sin’s ecological resources.Eleven indicators of both natural and human factors were selected to develop an ecological vulnerability evaluation system for the Ebinur Lake basin,including elevation,slope,slope direction,vegetation cover,annual precipitation,surface temperature,river network density,soil type,land use type,GDP per capita and population density.The weight of each indicator was determined by combining subjective and objective weights using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),entropy weight method and linear weighting method.The ecological vulnerability integrated index(EVII)of the study ar-ea for each year was then determined and the ecological vulnerability level of the Ebinur Lake basin was evaluated.The spatial and temporal ecological vulnerability of the study area decreased slightly over the 20 year study period,especially in the northern area,decreasing from 36.67%during 2000-2010 to 11.20%during 2010-2020.The EVII of the study area in 2000,2010 and 2020 were 5.2,4.7 and 5.1,de-creasing rapidly for the first decade and then increasing back to just less than the initial value.The overall ecological vulnerability of the Ebinur Lake basin was mild to moderate over 85.53%of the study area.The driving forces of ecological vulnerability in the basin were analyzed by geodetector analysis.The spa-tial distribution of ecological environment vulnerability was found to be the result of multiple interacting factors,but the interaction of vegetation cover and land use had the strongest influence on regional ecolog-ical vulnerability,with specific explanatory power values(q)of 0.592 in 2000,0.721 in 2010 and 0.711 in 2020.