极端天气城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害特征再分析及应对策略

Reanalysis of the characteristics of extreme rainstorm and flood disaster in urban areas and coping countermeasures

随着全球变暖和城市化快速发展,城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害风险日趋加剧。通过文献调研、科学分析与社会实践,首先凝练极端天气影响下城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害主要特征:包括降雨强度与累计降雨量大,突发性更强、预报极为困难,时空动态性明显、洪涝灾害耦合交互,分布范围广、多发群发,诱发次生灾害、级联效应明显,善于钻空子、找防汛漏洞,灾害破坏性与影响力更大。从多尺度自然环境、防洪排涝能力建设、洪涝减灾技术设备、防汛应急组织管理和洪灾防治政策法规等方面揭示城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害的主要成因,提出极端天气城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害科学应对策略,即:深化城市暴雨洪涝灾害级联效应理论,研发城市极端暴雨洪涝预测与精细化计算模型,提升城市暴雨洪涝应急防御技术与装备,推进城市防洪排涝体系全局协同防灾。研究成果有助于科学应对气候变化与极端天气影响下城市洪涝灾害面临的新挑战,进一步完善城市洪涝灾害防御理论技术与风险管理体系,对城市特大暴雨洪涝灾害的科学防控具有重要指导意义。

With the effects of global warming and rapid urbanization,the risk of extreme rainstorm and flood disaster in urban areas is increasing.Through literature research,scientific analysis and social practice,firstly,the main characteristics of urban heavy rainstorm and flood disasters under the influence of extreme weather events are summarized:large rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall,stronger suddenness,extremely difficult forecasting,obvious spatiotemporal dynamics,coupled and interactive flood disasters,wide distribution range,frequent mass occurrence,induced secondary disasters,obvious cascade effect,good at drilling holes,finding flood control loopholes,and more destructive and influential disasters.Then,from the aspects of multi-scale natural environment,flood control and drainage capacity building,flood mitigation technology and equipment,flood emergency organization and management,and flood prevention policies and regulations,the main causes of urban extreme rainstorm and flood disasters are revealed,and scientific coping strategies for urban heavy rainstorm and flood disasters in extreme weather events are proposed,namely:deepening the theory of urban rainstorm and flood disasters cascade effect,developing urban extreme rainstorm and flood prediction and refined calculation models,improving urban rainstorm and flood emergency defense technology and equipment,and promoting the overall coordinated disaster prevention of urban flood control and drainage system.The research results will help to cope with the new challenges faced by urban flood disasters under the influence of climate change and extreme weather,further improve the theory and technology of urban flood disaster prevention and risk management system,and have important guiding significance for the scientific prevention and control of urban extreme rainstorm flood disasters.