高比例新能源电力系统调节资源灵活性不足风险分析

Risk Analysis of Insufficient Flexibility from Regulation Resources in High Proportion Renewable Energy Power Systems

高比例新能源接入电力系统带来了显著的波动性和不确定性,电力系统面临灵活性不足的运行风险。不确定状态下灵活性不足风险评判对控制电力系统运行风险水平、评价规划方案的性能优劣具有重要意义。研究新能源电力系统调节资源灵活性不足风险量化评估方法,提出了新能源电力系统调节资源灵活性不足风险评价指标体系。首先,基于核密度估计与序优化理论,提出源荷不确定性数据驱动建模方法;为提高电力系统源荷样本数据的充裕度,提出基于云模型的电力系统小概率风险样本集重构方法,实现训练样本的无成本、灵活获取;然后,从爬坡能力和调节深度两方面提出新能源电力系统调节资源灵活性不足的风险量化评估方法。最后,算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

High-penetration renewable energy power systems introduce significant volatility and uncertainty,exposing the power system to operational risks associated with inadequate flexibility.Assessing the risk of insufficient flexibility under uncertain conditions is crucial for controlling the operational risk levels of power systems and evaluating the merits of planning scenarios.This study explores quantitative assessment methods for the risk of inadequate flexibility in renewable energy power system regulation resources and proposes a risk evaluation index system for this risk.Firstly,a data-driven modeling approach for source-load uncertainty is introduced based on kernel density estimation and order optimization theory.To enhance the adequacy of source-load sample data in power systems,a reconstruction method for low-probability risk sample sets in power systems based on cloud modeling is proposed,enabling cost-free and flexible acquisition of training samples.Secondly,a quantitative assessment method for the risk of inadequate flexibility in renewable energy power system regulation resources is developed from two aspects:ramping capability and regulation depth.Finally,case studies validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods.