基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析

Analysis on the Effect of Time-of-Use Electricity Price on Electricity Cost Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

建立合理的分时电价机制是以度电价格信号激励用户提供负荷灵活性的重要手段,也是直接影响用户电力成本的关键政策。近年来,随着新型电力系统加快建设,中国各地区相继优化调整了分时电价政策。在梳理分时电价政策最新调整情况的基础上,构建了基于双重差分法计算分时电价对用户度电成本净影响的模型,并对双重差分法得到的政策效果系数进行解耦,通过多元回归模型得到分时电价机制对度电成本的作用机理。基于2022年与2023年7月多地区已执行和未执行分时电价的不同电力用户的真实度电成本数据,分析了分时电价对各地区、各类别、各电压等级用户的政策效果与基本规律,验证了系数解耦回归模型的准确性。最后,基于该系数解耦回归模型,分析了不同价比关系下分时电价政策对商业用户度电成本的影响,并发现适当的尖峰、峰段电价的价比关系可以实现度电成本的最小化。

An effective time-of-use(TOU) electricity pricing mechanism is essential to stimulate customers to provide load flexibility by price signals,and can directly determine users' electricity cost.TOU electricity price has been adjusted in many provinces in China recently.This paper introduces and analyzes the new round of adjustment.Based on the difference-in-differences(DiD)method,the TOU effect on customers' electricity cost is calculated.Furthermore,enabled by a multiple regression model,the effect of TOU mechanism on electricity cost is revealed by fitting the decoupled coefficient obtained by DiD.Based on the real electricity cost of TOU and non-TOU customers of specific provinces,types,and voltage levels in July 2022 and July 2023,the TOU effects and general trends are obtained.Then,the accuracy of the regression model is verified.Finally,the TOU effect on the cost per kilowatt hour of commercial customers under different price ratios is analyzed.It is found that there is an optimal critical peak and peak ratio to minimize the electricity cost for commercial customers.