预期引导、经济韧性与宏观经济治理

Expectation Guidance, Economic Resilience and Macroeconomic Governance

在社会预期偏弱、风险隐患较多的背景下,如何完善宏观调控机制、提升经济金融韧性,引起了学术界与监管当局的高度关注。基于此,本文基于预期引导这一崭新的研究视角,准确刻画了我国的市场预期,厘清了悲观与乐观预期在不同市场条件下的异质性传导机制,并全面剖析了预期对经济韧性的支撑作用。本文研究发现,我国金融市场的预期传导过程,存在着显著的不对称现象,市场对悲观预期更为敏感。同时,韧性测度结果表明,近年来,在国内外风险冲击下,我国宏观经济整体呈现较好韧性,而金融系统对风险冲击的抵御能力也出现了持续性的提升,金融市场韧性不断增强,这进一步佐证了我国经济韧性强、长期向好的基本面不会改变。此外,本文的分析结果显示,乐观预期传导强度的走高与悲观预期传导强度的转弱均能显著提升我国宏观经济与金融市场的韧性,因此,我们必须更加积极主动地开展前瞻性的预期管理工作,进一步完善宏观经济治理,增强宏观经济与金融市场韧性,从而有效地稳定宏观经济大盘,实现经济的高质量发展。

China's economic development is currently confronted with the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations, alongside a notable increase in both domestic and international risks and challenges. In this context, improving macroeconomic regulatory mechanisms and enhancing both economic and financial resilience have garnered significant attention from both the academic community and regulatory authorities. Based on this, with a novel research perspective of expectations guidance, the paper precisely quantifies market expectations in China. We explore the heterogeneous transmission mechanisms of pessimistic and optimistic expectations under various market conditions, as well as examine their impact on economic resilience. The study reveals that asymmetries exist in the transmission of expectations within China's financial market, with a heightened sensitivity to pessimistic expectations. The analysis further indicates that, despite recent domestic and international risk shocks, China's macroeconomy has demonstrated substantial resilience. Furthermore, China's financial system's capacity to withstand risk shocks has improved consistently, and the resilience of the financial market has steadily reinforced. These findings support the strong resilience of China's economy and confirm that its long-term positive fundamentals remain unchanged. Additionally, the study demonstrates that both the strengthening of optimistic expectations' spillover and the weakening of pessimistic expectations' spillover can significantly enhance the resilience of China's macroeconomy and financial markets. Therefore, it is essential to implement more initiative forward-looking expectations management, further refine macroeconomic governance, and strengthen the resilience of both the macroeconomy and financial markets to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and achieve high-quality economic development.