新能源汽车推广的直接网络效应分析——基于多智能体的建模与仿真

An Analysis of the Direct Network Effect on New Energy Vehicle Promotion——Based on Multi-agent Modeling and Simulation

将直接网络效应分为从众效应、权威效应及羊群效应,并基于以上效应构建了新能源汽车推广影响的理论机制和模型。在NetLogo仿真平台上进行仿真分析,结果表明:初始绿色消费者数量、每位绿色消费者的影响程度及社交半径长度均能有效促进直接网络效应对新能源汽车的推广,且三者产生的影响呈现出不同的增长模式,分别为边际效应递减型增长、两段式增长和S形曲线增长。此外,随着生活圈规模的增大,初始绿色消费者数量的促进作用保持稳定,每位绿色消费者的影响程度促进效果逐渐减弱,社交半径的促进效果逐渐增强,但其增长率也逐渐降低。

The direct network effect is divided into three components:conformity effects,authority effects,and herd effects.Based on these effects,the theoretical mechanisms and models are constructed to analyze the promotional impact of new energy vehicles.Simulation analysis conducted on the NetLogo simulation platform reveals that the number of initial green consumers,the influence degree of each green consumer and the length of social radius can effectively promote the promotion of direct network effects on new energy vehicles,and the influence of the three shows different growth modes,namely,marginal effect diminishing growth,two-stage growth and S-shaped curve growth.Furthermore,as the scale of the living circle increases,the promoting effect remains stable for the initial number of green consumers while it is gradually weakening for each green consumer’s influence degree.There is a gradual increase in promoting the effect with respect to social radius;however,its growth rate also gradually decreases.