地方公共债务与税收政策周期性:效应与机制

Local Public Debt and Tax Policy Cyclicality:Effect and Mechanism

基于2000—2021年省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和调节效应模型考察地方公共债务增发对税收政策周期性调整的影响。结果显示:地方公共债务规模的扩大削弱了税收政策的逆周期调控;地方公共债务增发通过阻碍地区全要素生产率提高和挤占劳动就业两种途径降低税务部门征收的实际税收收入,进而削弱税收政策的逆周期调控;地方公共债务顺周期调节的背后原因是财政纵向失衡和减税力度加大,经济集聚水平和数字经济发展水平的提高有利于缓解债务的顺周期调节行为;门槛效应检验发现,36.1%的存量债务率和17.84%的流量债务率是税收政策由“逆”转“顺”的临界点。鉴于此,要科学调控地方公共债务的总规模和增速,精准测算债务发行空间,从而充分发挥债务资金的制度激励功能,不断缓解地方公共债务对全要素生产率和劳动就业的负面影响。

Based on the provincial panel data in China from 2000 to 2021,this paper uses fixed effect model,intermediary effect model and moderated effect model to explore the influence of increased local public debt issuance on the cyclical adjustment of tax policy.The study finds that the increase in local public debt weakens the counter-cyclical regulation of tax policy;The mechanism analysis finds that the increase in local public debt reduces the actual tax revenues collected by the tax department by both impeding the increase in regional total factor productivity and crowding out labor employment,thus weakening the counter-cyclical regulation of tax policy;The reasons behind the pro-cyclical adjustment of local public debt are vertical fiscal imbalances and increased tax cuts,and the increased level of economic agglomeration and the development of the digital economy contribute to mitigating the pro-cyclical behavior of debt;The threshold effect test finds that a stock debt ratio of 36.1%and a flow debt ratio of 17.84%are the thresholds at which tax policy switches from“negative”to“positive”.In view of this,it is necessary to scientifically regulate the total scale and growth rate of local public debt and accurately measure the space for debt issuance,so as to give full play to the systemic incentive function of debt funds and continuously alleviate the negative impact of local public debt on total factor productivity and labor employment.