基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测——以陕西段为例

Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model:A case of Shaanxi section

生态系统服务长期供给与最大化是社会可持续发展的重要前提,应准确掌握生态系统服务变化趋势。基于多源数据,借助InVEST模型和生态系统服务评估体系构建等方法理论,综合分析了2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段各类型生态系统服务的时空演变特征,并利用PLUS模型对2035年其土地利用及生态系统服务变化情况进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年黄河流域陕西段综合生态系统服务值整体表现出“南高北低”的分布特征,各生态系统服务优势区域同样集中在研究区南部。(2)2000—2020年研究区内综合生态系统服务值表现为先降后升,且提升明显,高值区域由南到北不断扩大;除土壤保持服务外,其余类型生态系统服务值在研究时段内均有一定提升,且各生态系统服务间具有明显的空间分异性。(3)相较于自然发展情景,生态保护情景下林地面积提升显著,研究区中北部服务等级提升明显;建设优先情景下建设用地面积大幅增长,沿黄水系服务等级降低区域聚集明显;可持续发展情景下林地和建设用地均有扩张,研究区北部服务等级提升明显。研究结果能够为黄河流域生态综合整治及高质量发展提供科学参考。

The long-term supply and optimization of ecosystem services are critical for sustainable social development,necessitating a precise understanding of ecosystem service trends.This study integrates multi-source data,employing the InVEST model and an ecosystem service evaluation framework to analyze these trends.A comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin,China,was conducted from 2000 to 2020.The PLUS model was subsequently used to simulate and forecast land use and ecosystem service changes for 2035.The findings reveal that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of comprehensive ecosystem service values in the Shaanxi section exhibited a“high in the south and low in the north”pattern,with high-value areas predominantly located in the southern region.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the comprehensive ecosystem service value initially declined and then increased significantly,with high-value areas expanding from south to north.Apart from soil conservation services,the values of other ecosystem services improved to varying extents,displaying significant spatial differentiation.(3)Under the ecological protection scenario,forest area notably increased,and service levels in the central and northern regions improved markedly.Conversely,in the construction priority scenario,the expansion of construction land led to decreased service levels in the Yellow River system and pronounced clustering of affected areas.In the sustainable development scenario,both forest and construction land expanded,significantly enhancing service levels in the northern part of the study area.Based on these results,this study examines the impacts of regional social development on ecosystem services and offers zoning and control recommendations,providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.