碳排放双控下区域绿色低碳发展指数评价体系研究——以湖北省为例

Study on Evaluation System of Regional Green and Low-Carbon Development Index Under Dual Control of Carbon Emission-Taking Hubei Province as an Example

正确评价社会低碳发展水平,是助力政府准确把握低碳转型趋势,科学制定政策,有序推动实现“双碳”目标的关键。研究聚焦碳排放双控的新形势、新要求,综合考虑碳排放双控、能耗双控、源荷低碳、经济发展、社会发展和环境发展等多维度因素,创新构建了区域绿色低碳发展指数评价体系,并基于层次分析法和CRITIC构建了主客观综合赋权模型,对指数体系各层级的评价指标赋予权重。以湖北省为例开展验算分析,深度剖析了湖北全省、各地市及三大产业、重点行业的绿色低碳发展情况,实现了湖北区域绿色低碳发展进程和趋势的科学评价。近年来,湖北省区域绿色低碳发展指数呈上升趋势,绿色低碳发展态势初显;各地市指数变化趋势存在一定差异,但基本呈现波动上升的趋势;第一产业绿色低碳发展态势稳中向好,第二产业指数上升趋势不明显,第三产业指数缓慢上升;5个重点行业中,农林牧渔业、服务业和建筑业的指数明显高于交通运输业和工业,交通运输业则更优于工业。

The correct evaluation of the level of low-carbon development in society is the key to helping the government accurately grasp the trend of low-carbon transition,scientifically formulate decision-making policies,and orderly promote the realization of the"double carbon"goal.This paper focuses on the new situation and new requirements of dual control of carbon emissions,comprehensively considers multiple dimensions such as dual control of carbon emissions,dual control of energy consumption,source-load low carbon,economic development,social development,and environmental development.It innovatively constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for the regional green and low-carbon development index.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the CRITIC method,a subjective and objective comprehensive weighting model is constructed to assign weights to the evaluation indicators at each level of the index system.Taking Hubei Province as an example,a verification analysis is carried out,deeply analyzing the green and low-carbon development status of the entire province,various cities,three major industries,and key sectors in Hubei,which achieves a scientific evaluation of the progress and trends of green and low-carbon development in Hubei.In recent years,the regional green and low-carbon development index of Hubei Province has shown an upward trend,and the trend of green and low-carbon development has emerged.There are some differences in the change trend of the index of different cities,but it basically shows a trend of fluctuation and rise.The green and low-carbon development trend of the primary industry is stable and good.The rising trend of the secondary industry index is not obvious,and the tertiary industry index is rising slowly.Among the five key industries,the index of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,service in-dustry and construction industry are significantly higher than that of transportation and industry,and transporta-tion industry is better than industry.