基于Super-SBM模型的中东欧国家碳排放效率及影响因素研究

Carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors in Central and Eastern European countries based on Super-SBM model

全面综合评估中东欧国家碳排放效率对于推动中国与中东欧国家合作以及高质量共建“一带一路”具有重要意义。文中基于考虑非期望产出的Super-SBM模型对中东欧国家2010—2020年的碳排放效率进行测算,并深入分析碳排放效率的时空分布特征与动态演进,最后采用Tobit模型探究中东欧国家碳排放效率的影响因素。结果显示研究时段内中东欧国家低碳发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,碳排放效率平均值从2010年的0.57增加到2020年的0.74,但各国存在显著差异。希腊、立陶宛和斯洛文尼亚的碳排放效率值明显高于其他国家,波罗的海国家和斯洛文尼亚的碳排放效率提升幅度最大。不同因素对中东欧各国碳排放效率产生不同影响。能源强度和人口总量是制约捷克和北马其顿等国碳排放效率上升的主要原因,外国直接投资净流入在不同程度上促进了立陶宛、罗马尼亚、北马其顿和希腊碳排放效率的提升。研究结果可为中国-中东欧国家开展绿色发展国际合作提供科学支撑。

Comprehensive assessment of the carbon emission efficiency of Central and Eastern European countries is of great significance for promoting cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries,and for high-quality joint construction of the “Belt and Road”.In this paper,the carbon emission efficiency was measured for Central and Eastern European countries from 2010 to 2020 based on the Super-SBM model that considers undesired output,an in-depth analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution of carbon emission efficiency,and finally the Tobit model was used to explore its influencing factors.The results show that the low-carbon development level of Central and Eastern European countries showed an overall upward trend during the study period,and the average carbon emission efficiency increased from 0.57 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2020,but there were significant differences among countries.The carbon emission efficiency values of Greece,Lithuania and Slovenia were significantly higher than those of other countries,with the Baltic States and Slovenia showing the largest improvements in carbon emission efficiency.Different factors had different impacts on carbon emission efficiency of Central and Eastern European countries.Energy intensity and total population were the main reasons restricting the increase in carbon emission efficiency in countries such as the Czech Republic and North Macedonia.Net foreign direct investment inflows promoted the improvement of carbon emission efficiency in Lithuania,Romania,North Macedonia and Greece to varying degrees.The research results can provide scientific support for Central and Eastern European countries to formulate low-carbon development strategies and carry out international cooperation.