延迟与弹性退休对企业职工基本养老保险的影响分析——基于共同富裕的视角

The Impact Analysis of Delayed Retirement and Flexible Retirement on the Basic Pension Insurance for Enterprise Employees:A Perspective of Common Prosperity

文章基于共同富裕的视角,同时分析延迟退休及弹性退休配套措施对企业职工基本养老保险、退休人员养老金待遇水平及其差距性两方面的影响。选取交叉替代率和平均替代率衡量企业退休人员的养老金待遇水平,选取各年龄段退休人员交叉替代率的基尼系数衡量制度内部的养老金待遇差距,构建退休年龄与这些衡量指标关联的精算模型,对模型参数取值进行设置,预测了延迟退休及弹性退休配套措施在2023~2052年间的作用效果。研究发现,设计的五种延迟方案均同时呈现双重利好:不仅利于缩小待遇差距,还能够提升养老金待遇水平,且其有利效果是依次增强的。进一步对比分析可得延迟方案的有利效果强弱与方案中参保人员平均退休年龄成正比,平均退休年龄越高,有利效果则越强。在各延迟方案基础上分别配套实施低延迟意愿情景L与高延迟意愿情景H下的弹性退休措施,发现配套措施实施后延迟退休原有的影响方向不变,仍呈现以上双重利好,只不过有利效果程度会有所削弱。基于此,提出尽快实施渐进式延迟退休政策,且在施行延迟退休政策时提倡实施弹性退休配套措施,以及应制定相应奖惩措施,激励参保人员选择高退休年龄等针对性政策建议,为基本养老保险迈向共同富裕发展提供参考。

From the perspective of common prosperity,this study analyzes the impact of delayed retirement and ac⁃companying flexible retirement measures on two aspects of basic pension benefits for retired enterprise employees:the level of pension income and the disparity in benefits.Specifically,it uses the cross-sectional replacement rate and av⁃erage replacement rate to measure the level of pension income for retired enterprise employees,and employs the Gini coefficient of the cross-sectional replacement rates across different retirement age groups to gauge the internal disparity in pension benefits.By constructing an actuarial model linking retirement age to these metrics,and assigning appropri⁃ate parameter values,the effects of delaying retirement and flexible retirement policies are projected for the period 2023-2052.The study finds that the five designed delaying retirement schemes simultaneously yield two favorable out⁃comes:not only do they help narrow the benefit inequality,but they also elevate the overall pension benefit level,with the positive effects incrementally strengthening across schemes.Further comparative analysis reveals that the favorable impact of a delayed retirement scheme is positively correlated with the average retirement age of its covered population–the higher the average retirement age,the stronger the beneficial effect.Flexible retirement measures were imple⁃mented in conjunction with various delaying retirement schemes,considering both low(L)and high(H)delay prefer⁃ence scenarios.Findings indicate that while the original beneficial effects of delayed retirement persist,exhibiting the same two desirable outcomes,their magnitude is somewhat attenuated by these complementary measures.Based on these conclusions,policy recommendations include:promptly implementing a gradual delaying retirement policy;ad⁃vocating for flexible retirement measures to accompany the delaying retirement policy;and establishing appropriate in⁃centives and disincentives to encourage insureds to opt for higher retirement ages.These targeted policy suggestions aim to provide valuable insights for the basic pension insurance system’s progression towards common prosperity.