气候变化对我国银行业系统性风险冲击效应及应对策略研究

Impact Effect of Climate Change on China Banking Industry’sSystemic Risks and Its Countermeasures

随着全球气候持续变暖,极端气候事件在全国各地爆发频率和程度飙升,对经济运行体系产生严重冲击,加大了财政收支压力,金融市场出现大幅震荡,财政风险与金融风险交叉感染加剧,加重了银行系统性风险,严重威胁到国家经济安全。结合中国行政治理机制和经济发展特点构建银行系统性风险指标,从地方政府债务中介效应角度验证气候变化对银行系统性风险的一般规律和作用机制。研究结果显示,气候变化将显著引致我国银行系统性风险,风险积累作用时滞为2~3年;气候变化对法治化水平较高与较低省份的银行系统性风险和地方政府债务风险影响均显著,法治化水平较低省份的地方政府债务中介效应显著但法治化水平较高省份中介效应不显著;弱气候变化冲击和强气候变化都将引致银行系统性风险,地方政府债务中介效应均显著但存在显著差异。为此,从推动绿色经济转型、推进财政体制改革等方面提出银行业系统性风险应对策略。

With the continuous warming of the global climate,the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have skyrocketed across the country,causing serious impacts on the economic operation system,resulting in increasing pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure,significant fluctuations in the financial market,intensified cross-infection of fiscal risks and financial risks,exacerbating systemic risks in the banking system,and seriously threatening national economic security.By constructing a systematic banking risk index based on China administrative governance mechanism and economic development characteristics,this study verifies the general laws and action mechanisms of climate change on systemic banking risks from the perspective of local governments’debt intermediary effect.The research results show that climate change will significantly lead to systemic risks in China banking system with a time lag of 2-3 years for risk accumulation effect;and climate change has a significant impact on the systemic banking risks and local government debt risks in provinces with higher and lower legalization levels,while the intermediary effect of local government debt is significant in provinces with lower legalization levels and is not significant in provinces with higher legalization levels;both weak and strong climate change impacts will lead to systemic banking risks,and the mediating effect of local government debt is significant with significant differences.Accordingly,relative countermeasures for addressing systemic banking risks are proposed from the aspects of promoting the transformation of green economy and advancing fiscal system reform.